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Setting Expectations For 2026
As we come to the close of 2025, I have spent time consolidating my thoughts and expectations for the new year, and this post looks how I see the macro…
Dec 31, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
84
26
1
End of 2025 Letter: Year of The Doji
The Bitcoin price in 2025 has traded within a $51,720 price range, spans a market cap change of $1.032 Trillion, and yet looks set to close the year…
Dec 22, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
72
22
1
Insider Selling & Liquidity Update (with The Bitcoin Layer)
Bitcoin twitter has found yet another narrative to explain why the Bitcoin price isn’t higher, and this time they are placing the blame on covered call…
Dec 18, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
,
Nik Bhatia
, and
Augustine Carrasco
46
10
1
System Stress
The overall Bitcoin market is currently experiencing the highest degree of stress in the cycle so far. Investors are holding losses, hashrate is…
Dec 15, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
63
13
3
Flagging Out
Bitcoin keeps trying to grind higher, but is yet to achieve any serious lift-off the bottom. The concern is this price action is starting to resemble a…
Dec 11, 2025
59
18
2
One Day, Satoshi's Coins Will Move
Given enough time, quantum computing, or some other technological breakthrough will eventually crack the cryptography which secures Satoshi's coins...we…
Dec 9, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
66
46
2
First Relief (+ MSTR Analysis)
Bitcoin is experiencing the first relief bounce since the $80k local low, and is battling to get back up to the critical $95k level. MSTR is now trading…
Dec 5, 2025
63
8
2
Install Better Brakes w/ David Dredge (Rough Consensus Podcast)
Today's conversation is with David Dredge from Convex Strategies, who is an expert in understanding tail risks and the role volatility has as an asset…
Dec 3, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
36
9
1
A Bear Market History Lesson
As Bitcoin attempts to re-find equilibrium, it’s time to revisit previous bear market structures to better think through the potential levels where we…
Dec 2, 2025
81
19
4
November 2025
🟠 Recording - Orange Member Call Nov '25
Watch the November '25 Orange Member Call now.
Nov 28, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
5
1
November Subscriber Q&A - Video Recording
We had a great rip this week, covering: Timing the bottom, 2026 outlook, and why the bear market consensus might be "too convenient".
Nov 27, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
39
8
🟠 Orange Monthly: Drawdown Depth Gauge
This months Orange report analyses the Bitcoin drawdown, and works through a set of scenarios for how low the bearish trend may take us, and market…
Nov 27, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
14
1
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