Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

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Wen Top?
"How to spot Bitcoin cycle tops?" is by far the most popular question I receive as an analyst. Whilst we cannot predict the future, we can model where…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
26
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Time-In-The-Market
If there was ever a time for the 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle to break, this market environment is likely it. Given we're less than 30-days from the danger…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
56
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Bitcoin Damage Report
Bitcoin has crashed once again to *checks notes* $113k, being the first pull-back since breaking to new ATHs. In today's report, we inspect the damage…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
27
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[Recording] Orange Monthly Call - July 2025
Watch the latest Orange Member Call, recorded on 31 July.
 • 
James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
3
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July 2025

Subscriber Q&A - July 2025
Your top questions answered: from current market cycle outlook, identifying tops/bottoms and MSTR to James' onchain analysis routine and top chess…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
21
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1:08:08
🟠 Orange Monthly Report: Financial Alchemy
Bitcoin Treasury Companies are experimenting with financial alchemy, and we require an updated framework to properly think through the sustainability …
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James Check (Checkmatey)
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July Q&A - Ask Your Question Here
Ask or upvote questions about Bitcoin, market structure, onchain analysis, and any other themes on your mind.
 • 
James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
5
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Absorbing Billions On A Weekend
The Bitcoin market just absorbed the sale of eighty thousand BTC on a weekend, and the market barely flinched. If this doesn't send a signal for how…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
29
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The Treasury Company Correction
Bitcoin continues consolidating in what looks like a high and tight bull flag, yet many Treasury Company stocks have taken a punch, with some trading…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
30
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But...Bitcoin's Too Volatile!?
Bitcoin is too volatile to be useful, and that's why I don't buy it! This is one of the biggest hangups people have with Bitcoin, but when we run the…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
24
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One Trillion Dollars
Today marks a very special day in the world of onchain analysis, in that the Realised Cap has just crossed the $1 Trillion threshold. The least I can do…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
33
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Masterclass #19: Spotting Cycle Extremes
There are many ways we can identify overheated, or oversold Bitcoin markets, but every tool comes with a bag of nuance and jargon. Today I introduce a…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
26
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A Very Quiet All-Time-High...
Perhaps a bit too quiet...
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James Check (Checkmatey)
43
Chop Chop
The Bitcoin price has now chopped sideways for yet another two months, and is threatening a move back to new ATHs, and into price discovery. Something…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
23
Eighty Thousand Ancient Bitcoin
Imagine what it must be like to HODL 80k BTC since 2011. Well, a set of ancient wallets from a time when Bitcoin traded for less than $1 just…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
42
Hitting Their Stride
It feels like Bitcoin is on the cusp of a major break-out higher. Not only is BTC a stones throw off fresh ATHs, but Strategy's preferred stocks just…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
26

June 2025

Peak HODL
There are a handful of points in every cycle, where supply really constricts, and HODLers tighten their grip, forcing the price to move higher. This is…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
33
Subscriber Q&A - June 2025
For this month's Q&A, we explore price topping models, our thoughts on MSTR and Treasury Companies, and how we're personally planning to execute our…
 • 
James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
23
[Recording] Orange Monthly Call - June 2025
Watch the latest Orange Member Call, recorded on 27 June 2025.
 • 
James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
🟠 Orange Monthly Report: The Return Of Leverage
The underlying structure of the Bitcoin market is changing. Spot bids are now dominated by passive ETF flows and Treasury Companies, whilst leverage is…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
June Q&A - Ask Your Question Here
Your chance to ask James questions about Bitcoin, market structure, onchain analysis, or any other themes on your mind.
 • 
James Check (Checkmatey)
 and 
Alec from Checkonchain
4
Down To Go Up
Whenever Bitcoin prints a series of red candles, I deploy this framework to gauge whether it is a run-of-the-mill correction, or a transition into a…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
10
Imagine Being Short...
Bitcoin has fallen asleep again at a price of $105k. We have seen this environment before...and Bitcoin either becomes a $105k stablecoin, or the fire…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
36
Same Same...But Different
Today is a deep dive into the last three Bitcoin cycles, to demonstrate just how similar they all are...and yet simultaneously showing how wildly…
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James Check (Checkmatey)
18
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