It's Too Quiet

Bitcoin has been chopping around the $64k level for more than two months, and volatility has compressed to historical levels. This usually signals an explosive move is coming soon...

G’day Folks,

Driving us all mad…

There have only been a handful of memorable instances in my Bitcoin career where the market has gone this dead quiet.

Volatility has compressed to such an extent, and the 30-day price range is a measly 5.6%. It is my experience that these conditions rarely last long, and extreme volatility squeezes like this often precede a resurgence of it.

Today’s post will analyse this volatility squeeze, and compare it to similar events in the past. These tend to occur in very late stage bears, but also in early bulls.

I’ll also spend time analysing the onchain supply setup, with a particular focus on cost basis levels that often converge around bear market lows. There is a tonne of coin now held around the 200-week moving average, and this $64k price zone is now the most important one we have seen in many years.