The Bitcoin Checkpoint: Edition #2 is Live

Get 30+ full-page insights in our latest edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint report. We explore how we see the 2025–26 bear market, and show how we synthesize market data into our base case thesis.

G’day Folks,

The Checkonchain team is proud to release the 2nd edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint report, in partnership with our friends at Unchained Capital.

In this 30+ page report, we analyse Bitcoin’s 2025–26 bear market through a wide range of data-sets from spot, onchain, ETF, and derivatives markets.

We use this to construct a data-based market thesis for this bear, and illustrate why many thresholds and mental models from prior bears now require a rethink.

The report is available for anyone to download via the button below.

At Checkonchain, we believe one of Bitcoin’s key advantages is the transparency of its data. Across onchain, spot, ETF, and derivatives markets, we’re able to observe investor behaviour in real time - with each dataset telling a different, but ultimately consistent story.

Rather than relying on narratives, we focus on what the market is actually doing: who is selling, who is buying, and at what price.

In this report, we assess:

• How the 2025 bull market topped, and the role of spot sell-side pressure.

• The mechanics of the drawdown, and what drove the move to $60k.

• The two major capitulation events that have shaped this bear.

• How over 2.0M BTC has rotated into a new cost basis range.

• Why models like the True Market Mean are increasingly relevant.

• Our base case thesis for where we believe this bear market bottoms out.

If you missed the 1st edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint, you can get it here.

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🤝 Please help us spread the word!

We’d really appreciate a repost, comment, and like of The Bitcoin Checkpoint launch post on X. If you enjoyed the report, please share the report link with folks in your circle who may be interested!

Thank you, and we hope you enjoy our analysis.

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Join James For A Live Webinar On 5th May

Downloading the report will also get you access to our upcoming live event: Mapping the Bitcoin Bear. This is a live presentation and Q&A alongside Unchained on Tuesday the 5th of May, supporting The Bitcoin Checkpoint launch.

Session Details:

📅 Tuesday May 5th, 2026 at 3pm CST
🎙️ Featuring James Check and Connor Dolan (Unchained)
💻 Free to attend

We hope you enjoy the report, and look forward to seeing you at the live event!

Cheers,
The Checkonchain Team