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Simon von Listener's avatar

Hi James,

You deserve a lot of credit for putting forth a bold hypothesis—that this cycle is different—and you may be right.

The human mind tends to operate within existing categories. Now that all Bitcoin investors are familiar with the market structure of previous cycles, they naturally expect history to repeat itself. Accordingly, the bulls anticipate a breakout from this range straight to $250K, while some bears predict a bear market with an 80% correction from the ATH.

However, it's worth considering that neither scenario may play out 100% and that we might need a new framework for analyzing Bitcoin’s market structure. If the pattern since 2023 repeats, then months of "chopsolidation" followed by a run to $150K–$160K before becoming top-heavy again—just as you predict—could prove prophetic.

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Derik Marrero's avatar

Hey James,

I know that investing strategies vary based on individual situations, but since you’re a young investor, I’m curious about your approach. Do you typically hold through both bull and bear markets, riding out the cycles? Or do you prefer to sell a significant portion at the peak of a bull market to have enough capital to reinvest once the bear market bottoms out?

Would love to hear your thoughts on how you navigate market cycles!

Thanks!

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