Structural Shifts
There's a lot happening in the world, and Bitcoin is naturally responding to many of them. In today's post, I will cover my view on some of the large macro shifts which I believe are impacting markets
G’day Folks,
Over recent months, the newsletter has had a keen eye on:
My base case expectation that Q1, and 2025 overall would be much choppier than the majority of folks expected (here & here).
The Lead-foot of Long-Term Holders, who applied significant sell-side pressure whilst the market was trading around $100k.
The gravity of the $73k to $86k ‘Air-pocket’, which the price is now trading within.
What we haven’t spent too much time talking about are the underlying reasons for why 2025 might have opened the way it has.
For most assets, the year was pretty fun in January…but it hasn’t been so fun ever since.
The chart below shows every year of the S&P500 performance dating back to 1900, along with some averages for up years, down years, and pre/post election years.
As we can see, the the first ~50 days were stronger than the average up year…but the last two weeks have been so bad the performance is now worse than the average down year.
We’re in the midst of some serious structural changes around the world, and investors are responding by taking positions off the table until they work out what on earth is happening.
A thesis I’ve been working on in recent weeks is how Bitcoin’s trading dynamics have evolved over the last few cycles, and why this time is in fact measurably different.
In today’s post, I want to explore where my current thinking is around this thesis, and also zoom all the way out to have a look at the big macro forces driving markets at the moment.
We’re going to explore the external factors which Bitcoiners are responding to.
We have already looked at their internal behaviour patterns in some detail, but it often pays to look out the window every so often.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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