Welcome to Bitcoin 2025
A new year, fresh legs, and the perfect opportunity to prepare ourselves for what will no doubt be a choppy, chaotic, but exciting year for Bitcoin.
G’day Folks,
Happy New Year!
I hope you all had a fantastic end of year celebration, and took some time to recharge the batteries. Thankfully, Bitcoin didn’t move very far from its starting position over the last month, which is relatively common in December as everyone steps away from the charts for the Christmas break.
Seasonality is a real thing in markets, and it is driven by all sorts of mechanisms. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated with a typical portfolio, we will see the price affected by events and flows due to tax season, end of quarter/year re-balancing, holiday seasons and a plethora of others.
The chart and table below shows Bitcoin’s end of month price performance in both the third and most euphoric year of a bull (green), and the first year of a bear (red). I want to focus on these periods as they are the most likely to be representative of what 2025 has in store for us.
The first half of the year is pretty choppy in both cases, with monthly drawdowns and rallies on the order of ±20% to ±40%.
We can also see the ‘sell in May and go away’ seasonality (summer in the northern hemisphere), and a strong H2 if the bull market persists that long.
In this post, I will provide my big picture assessment of where the Bitcoin market is currently trading, as well as a snapshot of some of the key risk factors which I see on the road in front of us.
Whilst the 4yr cycle would suggest 2025 is going to be a great year for Bitcoin, I suspect it will not be the smoothest of sailing, so I want to go into the new year with my analysis eyes wide open.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.