The Lead Foot

The $100k level remains a tough level to break, in no small part due to the very significant profit taking volumes coming from Long-Term Holders, which are more than countering demand forces.

G’day Folks,

Price is the balancing point between supply and demand, and the cure for high prices, is high prices.

Headlines continue to flash of MicroStrategy adding yet another 21.5k BTC for $2.1 Billion, and yet the Bitcoin price is still trading below $100k. The most rational take here is that whatever demand Saylor is bringing, it is being more than countered by sell-side pressure from existing BTC holders.

As it stands today, In my view, there is no shortage of sell-side supply.

In So, Who’s Selling, I introduced the analogy of the demand accelerator, and the sell-side supply brakes, where Long-Term Holders in particular create resistance even when the demand juices are flowing.

The Value Days Destroyed Multiple is accelerating rapidly, which is a sign that the brakes are currently weighed down by the Lead Foot of Long-Term Holders.

Note that this indicator peaked in Jan 2021, and March 2024, both of which I would classify as an ‘onchain top’. I will explore what this means in today’s post, as well as flag some of the notable warning signs which are starting to flash, just in time for Christmas.

Live Chart

---

📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

---

Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!