So, Who's Selling?
One of the biggest misconceptions in Bitcoin is that HODLers and OGs never sell. They absolutely do, and today, I want to break down not only when, but at what profit levels they cash in.
G’day Folks,
I love watching the narratives on twitter NOT playing out in the data.
After years of conditioning, many Bitcoiners believe that HODLers absolutely never sell their Bitcoin. They certainly do, but as with all things, there is nuance to this equation.
You will often hear me ask myself ‘do I see myself in this data?’. I use this as a sanity check to ascertain whether what I am seeing, aligns with what I am feeling.
If the market feels frothy, and lots of old coins are realising profits, that aligns with the thesis we could be running into resistance.
When we’re deep into a bear market, sentiment is shot, and there is basically no speculative capital sloshing around, that helps me identify opportunities to stack hard.
Right now, we are approximately 6x off the FTX cycle low, and the market has hit resistance, chopped around, and corrected from similar levels in both of the prior cycles. Yet we still powered onwards to massively higher highs.
Who creates this resistance every cycle?
Hint: It probably isn’t coming from people who don’t already hold coins…and they are probably motivated by the very green number in their portfolio.
Think of the market as a car, with demand being the accelerator, and sell-side pressure being the brakes. For the purpose of this post, assume the demand is pedal to the metal, with Saylor and the ETFs hammering the buy-side.
If the Long-Term Holders are pumping the sell-side brakes at an equal magnitude, the car isn’t going anywhere.
Today’s post is going to get into the nuts and bolts of when, and why Long-Term Holders sell the most coin volumes. I will break down LTH sell-side by age and the magnitude of profit locked in, so we can visualise when these OGs let an increasing amount of their stack go.
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