Leaking Lower
The near flag Bitcoin has been trading in since November keeps leaking lower, with the price looking like it wan't to make a trip back down towards the 2024 chopsolidation range.
G’day Folks,
It’s not the market any of us want, but it is the one which is in front of us.
The Bitcoin price has failed to show a great deal of strength in 2026, and is currently peering into the abyss, looking like it wants to break below $80k.
The low $80k region is actually a fairly important psychological level for the market, as it aligns with three thresholds:
The True Market Mean ($81k) which is the average onchain cost basis for investors who are active in the market.
The average ETF inflow cost basis ($82.6k), and as it stands, over 60% of inflows have occurred at higher prices (thus assumed to be reflective of investors in loss).
The prevailing local low of $80k set in November, which technically speaking, a break below would reverse the monthly price chart into a downtrend.
Today’s post will be a continuation of Monday’s analysis, where we assessed the probabilities for where this bear market is expected to ultimately find its floor.
I have translated these probabilities into a bear market floor price model, which we can combine with onchain tools to gauge when a full scale capitulation hasd taken place.
When the days are darkest, that is usually where the point of maximum opportunity emerges for the patient, high conviction investor. Whilst many are bailing out on Bitcoin, we’re entering the period when it is the most valuable time to be paying attention.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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