Where Is The Bottom Of This Bear?

It's the question everyone wants to know, but nobody knows for sure. We can however bound the problem using probabilities, and pain thresholds where investors have capitulated in prior cycles.

G’day Folks,

Our beloved corn keeps leaking lower, adding more and more weight to the argument that we’re trading within a bear flag, and destined for lower prices.

The obvious question is, how much lower can we expect Bitcoin to go?

Live Chart

Many in the crowd are busy living in their past sorrow of not having sold the top.

This comes out in a mass of cope posts, and desperate attempts to find a suitable narrative for why the next ATH for Bitcoin is just one omega-candle away. A highly counter-productive past-time in my view.

My preferred approach is to look ahead and identify high conviction price zones which I deem to be deep value, and thus terrific opportunities for accumulation.

We’re fortunate to not only have several cycles of price history as a guide, but also a permanent record of what investors did when they hit their pain threshold in previous bear markets.

Today’s post is going to cover how I think about probabilities in a Bitcoin bear market, with the ultimate aim of making my decision ahead of time for when I really ramp up accumulation.

The objective is to make my buy-side decisions, long before the price actually gets there, backed by a data driven approach. This helps me remove all of the emotions during the big scary red days, which are looking increasingly likely to be present in our near-term future.

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