When people ask me what metrics I use to find DCA opportunities within a Bitcoin bull market, I would probably pull out a set of on-chain and pricing tools, and say 'it looks a little bit like that'.
Exactly the kind of material why I subscribed to your channel. My complain with your free video and glassnode weekly review was that you were sharing only market analysis without really giving your final thoughts.
With this format, you bring us with you through your decision journey of buying/selling. This is what people wants and pays content for. You are an expert of on-chain and people strongly rely on your observation, analysis and ultimately, your decision.
Please keep the great work and providing this format.
Thanks mate, really please to see comments like this. I'm working through the different styles of content and analysis, and something I really want to emphasise is that 'I just don't know the answer' (nobody does). I can have a decent feel for it (expertise), and we can of course assess situations as best as possible, but worrying about whether the call is right or wrong is, in my view, less valuable that sharing the thought process I take to get there.
This is why we opted for the tagline for checkonchain being 'Your Bitcoin personal trainer'. It is about training the reaction function, and knowing how to spot when things change.
Thanks again, the more frequent timing of these is also good as it seems events move quickly more than ever. I’m a pretty patient hodler, but do find that price drives my purchase timing almost 100%, and more reference to some of these metrics is needed to reconfirm decisions. It’s always obvious in hindsight though!
Absolutely, and given the feedback on this post, I will share my thoughts on similar scenarios as they happen. We're working on getting the right balance for post frequency, as we want to make sure we deliver high value, but also not oversaturate everyone, as too much can also be an issue. All an iterative process
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! I think most new investors are missing a value map of some type. Your insights help us understand how you are valuing the market and I appreciate that! We can see in the 2016 market the STH CB was test a good bit and provided great discounts. 2019 was something different in general. Keep up the great work!
This is great content Check and what's the most valuable from these metrics. Get the true insights and interpretations based on probability and data from someone like you with so much experience with it. This premium subs would pay themselves many times over by making better long term decisions based on data instead of emotions.
Would be very fun if this bull market continues as we expect and we can use this data and metrics to "predict" the highs or close to it in the mist of the FOMO that happens around it. Leave emotions aside and accept that markets are made of humans and their behaviors as a whole can be seen live in bitcoin onchain where other markets we don't have data.
Bitcoin can be a lonely road, with everyone telling you you're crazy, wrong, and have three hands. Grounding yourself in the data (extracted from Bitcoin no less), and some relatively simple stats / probabilities can help a lot with making sane decisions. My goal for posts like this is to show how I prepare and use my own home-made sauce, just like Grandma's recipe. Gives a window into how I think as a HODLer first, and an analyst second (flips the usual script I think).
Super insightful to see your framework. I think we know it's a bull market and I see dips as an opportunity to be bought but your probabilistic approach really helps confirm those gut feelings of opportunity are the right choice. So useful, many thanks James, great work.
I would tend to agree that this is a very feasible scenario. I still consider chopsolidation to be one of the higher probability outcomes for the next few weeks to months, as it takes a long time to digest such an incredible move BTC has had over the last 18-months.
Exactly the kind of material why I subscribed to your channel. My complain with your free video and glassnode weekly review was that you were sharing only market analysis without really giving your final thoughts.
With this format, you bring us with you through your decision journey of buying/selling. This is what people wants and pays content for. You are an expert of on-chain and people strongly rely on your observation, analysis and ultimately, your decision.
Please keep the great work and providing this format.
Thanks mate, really please to see comments like this. I'm working through the different styles of content and analysis, and something I really want to emphasise is that 'I just don't know the answer' (nobody does). I can have a decent feel for it (expertise), and we can of course assess situations as best as possible, but worrying about whether the call is right or wrong is, in my view, less valuable that sharing the thought process I take to get there.
This is why we opted for the tagline for checkonchain being 'Your Bitcoin personal trainer'. It is about training the reaction function, and knowing how to spot when things change.
Thanks James, this is exactly the sort of content I would consider 'premium'. Appreciate your opinions & insight. Totally agree with Thibault above.
Thanks again, the more frequent timing of these is also good as it seems events move quickly more than ever. I’m a pretty patient hodler, but do find that price drives my purchase timing almost 100%, and more reference to some of these metrics is needed to reconfirm decisions. It’s always obvious in hindsight though!
Absolutely, and given the feedback on this post, I will share my thoughts on similar scenarios as they happen. We're working on getting the right balance for post frequency, as we want to make sure we deliver high value, but also not oversaturate everyone, as too much can also be an issue. All an iterative process
This is fantastic material. Exactly what I was looking for for a long time. Excellent 👍
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! I think most new investors are missing a value map of some type. Your insights help us understand how you are valuing the market and I appreciate that! We can see in the 2016 market the STH CB was test a good bit and provided great discounts. 2019 was something different in general. Keep up the great work!
This is great content Check and what's the most valuable from these metrics. Get the true insights and interpretations based on probability and data from someone like you with so much experience with it. This premium subs would pay themselves many times over by making better long term decisions based on data instead of emotions.
Would be very fun if this bull market continues as we expect and we can use this data and metrics to "predict" the highs or close to it in the mist of the FOMO that happens around it. Leave emotions aside and accept that markets are made of humans and their behaviors as a whole can be seen live in bitcoin onchain where other markets we don't have data.
Loving the analysis and explanations mate. Love hearing more about the way you personally think about things. I’ve taken advantage of this dip myself.
Bitcoin can be a lonely road, with everyone telling you you're crazy, wrong, and have three hands. Grounding yourself in the data (extracted from Bitcoin no less), and some relatively simple stats / probabilities can help a lot with making sane decisions. My goal for posts like this is to show how I prepare and use my own home-made sauce, just like Grandma's recipe. Gives a window into how I think as a HODLer first, and an analyst second (flips the usual script I think).
The two styles are complementary and together are greater than the sum of their parts, cheers.
I really appreciate that feedback, it is what I had hoped for. I will keep both running each week as I agree, they benefit each other.
Love this type of content James - keeps me grounded. Keep it up!
thanks James - it's all a weighing of probabilities - love it
Super insightful to see your framework. I think we know it's a bull market and I see dips as an opportunity to be bought but your probabilistic approach really helps confirm those gut feelings of opportunity are the right choice. So useful, many thanks James, great work.
tks ...! (better)
Omg beautiful! I just am so grateful you share all of this with us. And the details and the organization- all just chefs kiss!!!!!
could be a good time buy this dip and then wait for 6 month to year
Just a little observation from the charts on why I think we might spend a bit longer in the sub $63.9k area: https://substack.com/profile/58317655-adam/note/c-55577637
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I would tend to agree that this is a very feasible scenario. I still consider chopsolidation to be one of the higher probability outcomes for the next few weeks to months, as it takes a long time to digest such an incredible move BTC has had over the last 18-months.
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