Hanging On By A Thread

The Bitcoin bull market is hanging onto $108k like its life depends on it. Given the relatively heavy price action of late, I want to continue exploring the odds of a major break in either direction.

G’day Folks,

Bitcoin bulls are fighting tooth and nail to hang onto the 200-day moving average at $108k, and the bears have managed to probe as far down as $106k this week.

As readers know, the market is at a pretty important decision point, and by many measures, is On The Cusp of what could be perceived as bear market starting conditions.

The trip from here down to the ‘Bulls Last Stand’ at $95k…is not a large one.

Right now, almost every Short-Term Holder who has acquired Bitcoin within the last 5-months is underwater. The cohort is collectively holding a total of $28.3B in unrealised losses, and this is clearly weighing on sentiment.

There are currently no Long-Term Holders underwater, however that starts to change should the price drop back below $105k, at which point over 45% of the wealth invested in Bitcoin would be held underwater.

Chart Link

In the last two pieces, Check the Analyst has laid out a bearish case, and Check the HODLer presented a more optimistic perspective of current market conditions.

Now that we have established these two thesis, we have to listen to what the market is telling us, to try and narrow down which of these two ideas are closer to the mark.

We’re hanging onto the bull case by a thread at this stage, so let’s see if there is any evidence the Check the HODLer has this one figured out…or not.

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📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

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