Fresh Eyes

Last week, Check the Analyst laid out what he sees as a fairly robust bear case for Bitcoin. Check the HODLer now approaches the problem with a fresh set of eyes, to challenge that view.

G’day Folks,

Last week, I authored On the Cusp, which long-time readers will likely have recognised as the most bearish piece I have published since the newsletter started back in Apr-2024.

That piece was primarily written from the perspective of Check the Analyst, whose job it is to always remain as objective as possible, and take as much of the emotion out of reading a volatile Bitcoin market as he can.

Check the Analyst is a persona I use to help readers who are more sensitive to price, such as professional traders/investors, or retirees who really don’t want to survive another lengthy drawdown. The goal is to help us think through the risk market profile.

I always try to balance that objective view with a more ‘human’ perspective, coming from Check the HODLer. He’s just an average dude, who loves Bitcoin, has a long time-horizon, and wants to use Check the Analyst’s work to make better decisions.

I spent a significant portion of the weekend thinking through, and mulling over the current market structure, and today I want to bring you a perspective primarily from Check the HODLer. My aim is to bring On The Cusp back to a more practical perspective, and answer the question of ‘what on earth am I doing with this information’?

September was supposed to be bearish, and it was bullish…Up-tober so far has been Down-only-tober, so things sure aren’t playing out the way most expected.

It feels like now is the right time to bring some fresh eyes to the problem, and see whether Check the HODLer comes back with the same bearish outlook as Check the Analyst. I’m going to attack this problem from a variety of angles, and illustrate exactly how I am personally allocating my capital given the thresholds I establish.

Chart Link