Bitcoin has sold off to retest the $60k level once again. In this dip or doom edition, we check in to see if the strong hands are holding firm, and if the fast money is panic selling the lows.
Apr 21·edited Apr 21Liked by James Check (Checkmatey)
You mentioned in one of your comments that your primary focus was on the long-term, but are there any metrics you would suggest that would be useful for people trading in the shorter time frames?
Fantastic question, and thanks for asking. Yes absolutely, and you've just inspired me to start making a series dedicated to more active metrics.
I have an analysis framework piece I am working on which will make this next point more clear, but generally speaking active trader metrics fall into two buckets
- Spent metrics (i.e. volume, not hodled supply)
- Realised Profit/Loss (i.e. not unrealised p/l)
I will produce guides on the above in the coming weeks, but for now I would point you towards SOPR and Realised profit/loss. STH-SOPR I personally find the most useful, and there is a live instance now on CoC below.
Apr 19·edited Apr 19Liked by James Check (Checkmatey)
Hi Check, I remember from a while back in one of the weekly calls you said that it might be better for the overall long term picture if bitcoin takes a breather and have a more drawn out correction period before continuing its climb.
So far what we had has been ~20% corrections at worst, while in its history the serious bull market corrections could reach 40%. A break of 58k and retest of 48-50k is around 30% of such correction... typical in more serious bull market pullbacks, and could this actually be better in order for it to reach higher peaks? In TA there is a saying "the bigger the base, the higher in space".
Not sure whether this is related to on-chain, but what's your angle on this?
Yes indeed, a correction down to that level would in our view be very healthy and welcomed. That said, the resilience and relatively light pullbacks are noteworthy.
The other way that the market can 'reset' is via time. Where slower moving averages and/or realised price cost basis can catch up to the market, refinding an equilibrium level.
You mentioned in one of your comments that your primary focus was on the long-term, but are there any metrics you would suggest that would be useful for people trading in the shorter time frames?
Fantastic question, and thanks for asking. Yes absolutely, and you've just inspired me to start making a series dedicated to more active metrics.
I have an analysis framework piece I am working on which will make this next point more clear, but generally speaking active trader metrics fall into two buckets
- Spent metrics (i.e. volume, not hodled supply)
- Realised Profit/Loss (i.e. not unrealised p/l)
I will produce guides on the above in the coming weeks, but for now I would point you towards SOPR and Realised profit/loss. STH-SOPR I personally find the most useful, and there is a live instance now on CoC below.
https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/realised/realised_sthsoprindicator/realised_sthsoprindicator_light.html
Hell yeah, thanks James! Exciting times.
Great video update! 😃
Thanks! We will iterate on this format as the market provides the infinite number of events to study and learn from.
Hi Check, I remember from a while back in one of the weekly calls you said that it might be better for the overall long term picture if bitcoin takes a breather and have a more drawn out correction period before continuing its climb.
So far what we had has been ~20% corrections at worst, while in its history the serious bull market corrections could reach 40%. A break of 58k and retest of 48-50k is around 30% of such correction... typical in more serious bull market pullbacks, and could this actually be better in order for it to reach higher peaks? In TA there is a saying "the bigger the base, the higher in space".
Not sure whether this is related to on-chain, but what's your angle on this?
Yes indeed, a correction down to that level would in our view be very healthy and welcomed. That said, the resilience and relatively light pullbacks are noteworthy.
The other way that the market can 'reset' is via time. Where slower moving averages and/or realised price cost basis can catch up to the market, refinding an equilibrium level.