Devil's Advocate: Bear Market Edition
Today's piece will construct a steel-man case against my prevailing market thesis. I want to analyse the other side of the coin, in an effort to think through market dynamics I might otherwise miss.
G’day Folks,
If you can’t debate the other team’s case, you are considerably more likely to miss holes in your own arguments. It is one of the more effective ways at firming up your ideas, and testing it against a world of other opinions.
Long-term subscribers will know that I like to undertake these Devil’s Advocate studies around major market inflection points, with the last two being in Oct-2024 and May-2025.
Those two prior studies were performed during a primary bull trend, and were looking for signs of weakening structure, and I tried to argue the bear case for why further upside may not be on the cards.
Given we’re now in a primary bear trend, with a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, it felt like the next Devil’s Advocate edition was overdue.
Today, I will be arguing the other side, and countering my prevailing thesis of bear market bottom formation already underway.
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