Devil's Advocate
Subscribers know, I've held a macro bullish bias over the last few months, and the market seems to want to move higher. Let's play devil's advocate, and make a case for how my bias could be wrong.
G’day Folks,
Markets are impossibly complex, and as an analyst, my best hope is to use the available data, and my experience interpreting it, to achieve a best guess. As I like to say often, I cannot predict the future, but I can prepare for it.
Subscribers will know that I have held a macro bullish bias on the monthly time-frame throughout this chopsolidation process, tempered with a tactical bearish bias in the shorter-term.
Polarity Shift highlighted what appeared to be several pieces of evidence pointing to a reversion of the market back towards the dominant monthly uptrend. We achieved a new local higher high in price, and satisfied our Playing with Fire checklist for when I could be more confident and constructive in the near term.
Before getting too ahead of myself, I felt it was a good time to perform a deep analysis of almost every metric I have, and look for clear signs of weakness.
The idea is to build the strongest case I can for why and how my macro bullish bias could be wrong, and to help prepare us for any lurking curve-balls.
In this piece, I will walk through metrics which I believe run counter to my bullish bias, and attempt to steel man a case for the bears.
Time to play Devil’s Advocate.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.