Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Share this post

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Devil's Advocate
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

Devil's Advocate

Subscribers know, I've held a macro bullish bias over the last few months, and the market seems to want to move higher. Let's play devil's advocate, and make a case for how my bias could be wrong.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
Oct 01, 2024
∙ Paid
34

Share this post

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Devil's Advocate
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
13
2
Share

G’day Folks,

Markets are impossibly complex, and as an analyst, my best hope is to use the available data, and my experience interpreting it, to achieve a best guess. As I like to say often, I cannot predict the future, but I can prepare for it.

Subscribers will know that I have held a macro bullish bias on the monthly time-frame throughout this chopsolidation process, tempered with a tactical bearish bias in the shorter-term.

Polarity Shift highlighted what appeared to be several pieces of evidence pointing to a reversion of the market back towards the dominant monthly uptrend. We achieved a new local higher high in price, and satisfied our Playing with Fire checklist for when I could be more confident and constructive in the near term.

Before getting too ahead of myself, I felt it was a good time to perform a deep analysis of almost every metric I have, and look for clear signs of weakness.

The idea is to build the strongest case I can for why and how my macro bullish bias could be wrong, and to help prepare us for any lurking curve-balls.

In this piece, I will walk through metrics which I believe run counter to my bullish bias, and attempt to steel man a case for the bears.

Time to play Devil’s Advocate.


📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Checkonchain
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More