Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

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Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Devil's Advocate Redux
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Devil's Advocate Redux

Whenever I have established a near-term bull case for Bitcoin, I always flip the script, and construct the strongest bear case I can to challenge my bias. Today we're going through that bear case.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
May 06, 2025
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Devil's Advocate Redux
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G’day Folks,

No matter how convinced you are of a particular idea, you should always challenge yourself to think through and test opposing views.

As an analyst of markets, I am always very conscious to monitor my biases, and never hold any opinion too firmly. In fact, I often find that when I get particularly bullish, exploring the opposite bear thesis can help to solidify, or fully counter my position.

Long-time readers will recall the first edition of Devil’s Advocate, which I posted in October 2024 (BTC $60k) in an attempt to challenge my bullish bias at the time.

What I found was that the bear case was pretty weak sauce, and that helped me build stronger conviction that Bitcoin was likely headed on a serious run higher.

As I started preparing ideas and charts for today’s piece, I inadvertently recognised that I was using a very similar analysis framework to assess my bear case in today’s market conditions. I would also argue that we’re in a different environment compared to October last year, with Bitcoin having entered price discovery, and setting to a convincing new ATH of $110k.

The macro backdrop has changed, and if past cycles are anything to go by, we’re considerably later in the classic Bitcoin bull cycle.

I’m putting on my Devil’s advocate T-shirt, and attempting to build a bear case to challenge Friday’s bullish piece titled Disbelief Squeeze.

Live Chart

📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.


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