The Bitcoin price has now chopped sideways for yet another two months, and is threatening a move back to new ATHs, and into price discovery. Something tells me, we have now chopped enough wood.
Hey Check, hat tip for nailing the call that chopsolidation periods would be the "bears" of this cycle, at least so far. I don't think I've heard anyone else articulating it in that way in the last two years and it's been dead on. Now I'm curious to see how your sense that volatility is likely to return plays out. I'm wondering what that will do to sentiment, how it'll affect the vol business that Saylor's running, and what kind of bear it will awaken if it does return. Feels like we're going to turn the page on a new chapter here.
Hi James, excellent piece as always. I was wondering—would it be possible to use the standard monthly options (those expiring on the third Friday of each month) as the data for the Options Probability of Expiring Above Strike chart? Thank you for your timely analysis and valuable insights!
James, you mention a small position in MSTY for income purposes. A far better vehicle to put on your radar is ICIO and IMST. Both run by Bitwise and a very solid team. They are doing a similar thing to MSTY, but run by a better group of investors. ICOI harvests the vol on Coinbase and dividends it out. IMST does the same for MSTR. Just wanted to put both on your radar for income oriented investors. I used to be in MSTY but moved that allocation across to these two vehicles.
Thanks Dean, yes I looked at IMST when I was taking the position, and the main reason I opted for MSTY was the liquidity profile. It was much more expensive to enter and exit the IMST position at the time because of the lower trade volume (it was just after launch). I presume that will deepen over time.
Thanks Check! To buy or not to buy! with my limit orders patiently waiting, THE FOMO IS REAL. How do you resist the urge of going all in? It almost feels wrong keeping any capital on the side line!
The way I deal with that problem, is I take a very firm view on which version of Check I am stacking for. If I am stacking for Year 2040+ Check, I don't care about $110k vs $90k, irrelevant. If I am taking a more speculative position in MSTR for example, which is for 2026 Check, then I spend a lot more time evaluating the market conditions before I FOMO in.
Know Which version of yourself you're working for, helps a lot.
Check, thanks for the update. Regarding the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Why can we say that the green color above $112k represent shorts (and not also longs that are positioned for upside once, 112k is definitely breached with force?
The timing of this piece 🤌
Spot on calls in this one. This aged incredibly well... and it's only been 16 hours :) Lets go BTC 🚀
This ain’t a bear market—it’s Bitcoin carb-loading.
Every “A TOP” is just a stretch before the next sprint to “WTF” levels.
You’re not late. You’re just early… to the fireworks.🧨
Rip shorts
Alternative Headline: Bitcoin about to rally sharply because bullish fundamentals unchanged.
Excellent Check. Well done!
One can't truly begin to appreciate the phrase "picking up pennies in front of a steam roller" until you see the kind of price action we just saw.
And as others have already noted, the timing of this piece could not have been better.
It's amazing to watch people shorting what was very clearly a bullish price chart...such a strange behaviour pattern.
What a call!
Great post right before the move, LFG!
Check, just a comment: banger of a video, best one yet IMO (independent of this current PA)
#Nostracheckadamus
Hey Check, hat tip for nailing the call that chopsolidation periods would be the "bears" of this cycle, at least so far. I don't think I've heard anyone else articulating it in that way in the last two years and it's been dead on. Now I'm curious to see how your sense that volatility is likely to return plays out. I'm wondering what that will do to sentiment, how it'll affect the vol business that Saylor's running, and what kind of bear it will awaken if it does return. Feels like we're going to turn the page on a new chapter here.
This essay was perfectly timed, Sir!
Hi James, excellent piece as always. I was wondering—would it be possible to use the standard monthly options (those expiring on the third Friday of each month) as the data for the Options Probability of Expiring Above Strike chart? Thank you for your timely analysis and valuable insights!
All options contracts are on the live chart, so you will be able to see how they are positioned relative to all the others each day.
James, you mention a small position in MSTY for income purposes. A far better vehicle to put on your radar is ICIO and IMST. Both run by Bitwise and a very solid team. They are doing a similar thing to MSTY, but run by a better group of investors. ICOI harvests the vol on Coinbase and dividends it out. IMST does the same for MSTR. Just wanted to put both on your radar for income oriented investors. I used to be in MSTY but moved that allocation across to these two vehicles.
Thanks Dean, yes I looked at IMST when I was taking the position, and the main reason I opted for MSTY was the liquidity profile. It was much more expensive to enter and exit the IMST position at the time because of the lower trade volume (it was just after launch). I presume that will deepen over time.
Thanks Check! To buy or not to buy! with my limit orders patiently waiting, THE FOMO IS REAL. How do you resist the urge of going all in? It almost feels wrong keeping any capital on the side line!
The way I deal with that problem, is I take a very firm view on which version of Check I am stacking for. If I am stacking for Year 2040+ Check, I don't care about $110k vs $90k, irrelevant. If I am taking a more speculative position in MSTR for example, which is for 2026 Check, then I spend a lot more time evaluating the market conditions before I FOMO in.
Know Which version of yourself you're working for, helps a lot.
Check, thanks for the update. Regarding the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Why can we say that the green color above $112k represent shorts (and not also longs that are positioned for upside once, 112k is definitely breached with force?
If you're long, your liquidation level is by definition below the spot price. Not possible for those levels to be longs.