James, your realistic analysis is the perfect balance between the omega candle moon guys promising an imminent supply shock, and the anti coiners who think the entire market is propped up by fake Tether printing, and any retail are just exit liquidity.
Thanks for keeping us all grounded, yet optimistic.
Thanks for asking, I will try to give a few pieces of rationale. The short answer is not really, and here is why:
1. From a technical and monetary standpoint, I don't believe Ethereum is 'it', and Bitcoin is. I believe Bitcoin has already won the battle for hard money, and thus that is where I am best placed spending my time.
2. Ethereum has made many technical trade-offs in its time which I believe are sub optimal (burns and PoS namely). I covered many of these in this report release pre-merge https://youtu.be/gyP0uxxB6V8
3. The onchain and market signature of Ethereum is, for lack of a better term, ugly. The multiple technical changes/upgrades, the existence of smart contracts, the tokens etc, it really muddies the waters. Bitcoins onchain signature is clean, crisp, concise and clear, and speaks to true human psychology. Ethereum's is a real mess, and I find it very hard to find and distil true organic characteristics and market psychology from it. The truth is a lot of the behaviour is better explained by VC funded supply, and being in the right telegram groups.
4. After almost a decade, I question what Ethereum has actually built and delivered? Stablecoins? Leveraged trading? I find myself extremely underwhelmed by what crypto by and large has shipped (and I used to use it a lot). BTC and stablecoins are really the main innovations from this industry to date. I just find the overall Ethereum project very underwhelming at the end of the day, and when I ask myself 'If Ethereum launched today, would anyone use it?' I end up at...probably not.
So the summary is that I think Ethereum made many tradeoffs which don't bode well for longevity. Technically I find it underwhelming and overly political, empirically it hasn't caught my attention, and structurally the onchain signals are noisy, few and far in between. Hopefully that helps shed some colour, and happy to expand further as needed!
James, your realistic analysis is the perfect balance between the omega candle moon guys promising an imminent supply shock, and the anti coiners who think the entire market is propped up by fake Tether printing, and any retail are just exit liquidity.
Thanks for keeping us all grounded, yet optimistic.
Great work James! Quick questions, are you interested in providing/analyzing Ethereum on-chain data? If not, why not?
Thanks for asking, I will try to give a few pieces of rationale. The short answer is not really, and here is why:
1. From a technical and monetary standpoint, I don't believe Ethereum is 'it', and Bitcoin is. I believe Bitcoin has already won the battle for hard money, and thus that is where I am best placed spending my time.
2. Ethereum has made many technical trade-offs in its time which I believe are sub optimal (burns and PoS namely). I covered many of these in this report release pre-merge https://youtu.be/gyP0uxxB6V8
3. The onchain and market signature of Ethereum is, for lack of a better term, ugly. The multiple technical changes/upgrades, the existence of smart contracts, the tokens etc, it really muddies the waters. Bitcoins onchain signature is clean, crisp, concise and clear, and speaks to true human psychology. Ethereum's is a real mess, and I find it very hard to find and distil true organic characteristics and market psychology from it. The truth is a lot of the behaviour is better explained by VC funded supply, and being in the right telegram groups.
4. After almost a decade, I question what Ethereum has actually built and delivered? Stablecoins? Leveraged trading? I find myself extremely underwhelmed by what crypto by and large has shipped (and I used to use it a lot). BTC and stablecoins are really the main innovations from this industry to date. I just find the overall Ethereum project very underwhelming at the end of the day, and when I ask myself 'If Ethereum launched today, would anyone use it?' I end up at...probably not.
So the summary is that I think Ethereum made many tradeoffs which don't bode well for longevity. Technically I find it underwhelming and overly political, empirically it hasn't caught my attention, and structurally the onchain signals are noisy, few and far in between. Hopefully that helps shed some colour, and happy to expand further as needed!
I really appreciate the time and care you always put in your answers. I am learning a lot!
Solid analysis 🧐 well done once again James.
Thanks James. Your nailing the BTC on-chain education.