Are We Hammering Out A Bottom?
Bitcoin’s price has returned to the True Market Mean at $82k, and the question we now have to ask is whether the market is ready to start hammering out a bottom. If not here, where next?
G’day Folks,
What a wild couple of weeks.
If you can believe it, this time last week, the Bitcoin price was only just breaking below The Bulls Last Stand at $95k, and within a matter of days, had collapsed down to as low as $80k.
Whilst we have discussed the idea of the market trading down towards the $80ks since mid-October, it is always another thing to live through it actually playing out. The reality of being a Bitcoiner, is drawdowns like this one are a part of the journey, and it still sucks whenever it happens.
It can be quite the challenge to re-orient yourself after a major market move, and I find this to be true in both bull and bear markets. Suddenly the price is trading somewhere new, and there is a flurry of narratives as people try to explain why the market moved the way it did.
Way back in January, I prepared a piece called Rethinking Bears, where I explained why I think the True Market Mean is a more likely candidate metric for where a modern bear cycle might find its low.
We’ve bounced off it already during this sell-off, but it is critically important to revisit those assumptions amidst the action to see if that case still holds. Today’s post will be an exploration of whether the True Market Mean is holding up the way I expected it to, and if not, where I expect a bottom may start being hammered out.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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