The Wall Still Stands
The bearish flood-waters continued creeping up The HODLers Wall, but the bulls have thus far stopped any cracks from propagating beyond the Short-Term Holder cost basis.
G’day Folks,
The HODLers Wall still stands strong!
Those wretched bears have failed to make any serious ground, despite taking the Bitcoin price as low as $108.6k late last week. They were rewarded with a rally back to $114k, as the bulls stepped in to do some repair work.
At the recent low of $108.6k, around 18% of the BTC supply, and 33% of all the USD invested wealth held in Bitcoin was pushed underwater.
To my eye, this hit to investor sentiment simply wasn’t large enough to properly break through to the other side of the wall. As we covered in recent newsletter editions (here and here), the bulls have managed to hold onto the first line of defence, being the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $111.6k.
In both the 2024 and 2025 corrections, the price dipped -10% to -20% below the STH cost basis, however in today’s market, I have argued that a similar correction today could do a bit too much damage.
As we’ve covered, there are two important price levels within The HODLers Wall, at which point things can unwind quickly.
A relatively shallow dip below $111.6k would tip a super-majority of network wealth into a state of unrealised loss.
In the background, I have also been processing the mountain of IBIT options data that I introduced back in More Paper Bitcoin! I now have enough charts and new insights built up, that we can bolster our onchain assessment of The HODLers Wall, with a view of the positioning of leveraged options traders.
More often than not, I find that the story told by derivatives markets aligns very nicely with onchain analysis. This gives me greater confidence in the price levels that we have our eye on for the resumption of the bull…
…or the potential end of it.
Let’s get stuck into the data!
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