Slaying The Bear
Today's analysis will lay out a set of ideas that describe what the end of a Bitcoin bear market looks like, and the tools I track for assessing when the bull market recovery has commenced.
‘In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners’ — J.P. Morgan
G’day Folks,
Bear markets are a process which shakes out all of the tourists and investors who do not have the conviction to own an asset during the period of maximum opportunity.
As we have covered in recent reports, the later stages of bear markets tend to be book-ended by a major Price Capitulation, and then by a challenging period of Time Pain.
Both the price drawdown, and the painful passage of time, slowly but surely whittle away the willpower of those who don’t know what they own, nor why they own it.
Through this process, coins migrate back towards stronger hands at a more favourable cost basis. By the end of the bear, the only ones left are those with the highest conviction, who are buying when nobody else is willing to.
In this piece, I will explore the supply mechanics which form a bear market floor, and then follow with a combination of leading indicators that help us identify when the bear has truly been slain.
We’re seeking the inflection point, at which stage a resilient market base has formed, and the green shoots of the next bull market have started to sprout.
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