Time-Pain
Are we there yet?
G’day Folks,
There are two primary sources of pain in Bitcoin bear markets:
Price pain: where the drawdown erodes the unrealised paper profits held by folks who didn’t sell in the bull, and also plunges everyone else into increasingly nasty unrealised losses. Price pain typically ends with a major capitulation event.
Time pain: after the market has established what is usually a major capitulation low…it grinds…and it grinds…and it grinds…sideways…painfully…for months and months and months. This phase of the bear is absolutely brutal, and it usually ends in yet another capitulation event, as everyone gives up any hope of the bull market coming back.
Today’s piece is going to be an exploration of time pain.
I will analyse each of the prior Bitcoin bear market cycles using eight different analysis methods. My goal is to estimate how long this current bear market may drag on based on when we saw a significant break of a key market threshold.
I want to answer the question of how much time we may have left in this bear, and the consistency of answer I came across, really surprised me.
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