September is a statistically soft month, not only for Bitcoin, but for most risk assets. Today we're going to investigate the BTC demand profile to see whether we can buck this soft-September trend.
thanks Check, I've had my plan for this bull market since early 2024. so far its been working fine, and like you say, helps me keep my emotions and emotional decisions in check. This drop around jackson hole before and after kinda made my gut worried. All your charts and science have shown me that I'm not wrong in assuming that SO FAR. and dont pull the trigger ever out of emotion.
I really needed this report for my piece of mind and to let my head take back over from my fear/greed urges.
ps. setting up my daily DCA has helped soooo much with this too.
The crazy thing is, Daily DCA is almost impossible to beat without extremely sophisticated algorithms. It is such a powerful strategy. What is much harder to manage, is the emotional journey we experience with the ups and downs. That's where I find this data really helps, to visualise and see how things evolve and change. Setup mental thresholds and decision points in advance so it is never a surprise.
The longer I spent in the Bitcoin space, the more I realised I don't mind when the price goes down. I just hate when it goes down and I wasn't expecting it, and feel my uncertainty levels shoot through the roof. So long as I am mentally prepared, it's just another day on the roller coaster.
too true. I feel so much better after I signed up with river and started my dailys. now I don't feel hardly any anxiety to the upside or downside anymore. I've learned through mistakes that I'm the type of emotional trader that will always make the wrong choice and buy at the top cause of FOMO, and sell at the bottom cause I'm just too scared. Now those bad choices are only for my "extra" money that I can gamble with.
I am so happy with the whole thing I got my friends at work (that will still listen to me blather on about bitcoin) to sign up and at least promise to start a DCA. any start is better than no start.
Hi James, is there a chart for dca? like some cost average line vs the real price. Besides, if we expect btc to hold 100k this year, is it a good time to dca now? it's already 110k and the upside this year should be bigger than downside
I've found a few amazing graphs built on twitter by stinston_with. the one you want will "predict" how much you need to DCA weekly to get to a specific amount of BTC in a specific year. stinston only posts on twitter but great info. I personally do daily buys, more reliable to get the wiggles. just divide your weekly buy by 7 and do daily buys
as far as is it a good time to DCA, I'm only spending half my daily buys right now and saving the other half for later after the price (cycle) tops and comes back down. that way I have extra dry powder for when the price becomes discounted, AND I'm still buying now. just the piece of mind of not having to time the market is worth any nickles and dimes I spend extra right now.
Hey James, what is your read on your choppiness index as of today? Are we in a period for a multi week, brief chopsolidation period before the next move up into a historically good October?
There is sufficient energy to trend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The risk we're trying to work through, is which direction will that trend be in.
Great piece, pure signal as usual. Thanks again for the thoughtful, emotionally mature and frequent BTC market thoughts. As a genx late to the btc party but long in markets I’ve found your commentary to be most helpful amoung all the btc voices. This last push down felt like liquidations and margin calls to me. I’m feeling really good about the momentum going into the end of the year. Let’s go!
Haha, thanks mate. We've been #2 for 6mths or so I think, with eyes on the top spot. Like going to the gym, just have to stay consistent and push ourselves to deliver the best.
Absolutely outstanding analysis!!! Honestly, how do you do it, James? Just got that wick you mentioned (108 level in your video). You and your on chain analysis are like a magician’s trick - just amazing. With you front-running the moves with your info, I am better prepared - don’t need to get nervous and can also be ready to capitalize on the move when i can. THANK YOU!
Thanks Kieth. If I was to hazard a guess, it is because I have spent far too many hours nerding out over these weird and wonderful charts and datasets. More often than not, our natural Bitcoiner instincts align very closely with the data, largely because the data describes all of our holdings in aggregate. It's basically our emotions plotted out in chart form.
The secret sauce in my view, is trusting your gut. When the data lines up with it, that's a great sign. When divergences emerge, that's when things get really interesting!
Have been watching the YT pods so far, best analysis out there. Have just now subscribed to stay more up to date and a little more sane during more volatile periods. Appreciate your work man.
Hi James, have been a subscriber on and off for a year now, love your analysis and especially the checkonchain chart suite!
remember reading about possibility for API integration on the checkonchain chart, is that still a thing and if yes, what's the best way to get in touch about that?
G'day! There are no plans to do an API, but at the bottom of this post you will find a link to our friend ResearchBitcoin who has an API for Bitcoin data which we proudly use.
On the macro side of things I can definitely see further US rate cuts into the end of the year. I am still skeptical we'll flip from bull to bear without at least some of the usual overheated signals triggering (fade out with a whimper versus a bang); right now feels like a pause / wait-and-see phase rather than the final stages of a bull.
James, you are the main reason I have completely avoided Ethereum. Mostly I have been thankful for this, especially last December when so many got wrecked. I want to believe that this time is no different, but the noise is VERY loud. I just wanted to clarify that in your honest assessment there is still no valid investment case for ETH. Tokenization still sounds a complete scam, but I have some family that are senior in corporate finance and they have certainly bought into the “utility” narrative surrounding stable coins and the bill that was just passed.
My position has not changed. The stablecoin is the utility, not the gas token. When I drive my car, I don't stockpile mountains of petrol, I just drive down the service station once every few weeks to fill up as necessary.
When people talk about tokenisation of RWAs, the value is in the RWA, not the gas token used to move it around. Besides, Ethereum is unable to scale for global commerce at the base layer, and L2s are basically just L1's which extract 95% of the value from the Ethereum L1. Base is the most successful L2 and is literally a single server in Coinbase basement extracting tens of millions of dollars in fees, whilst paying a hundred k to the L1.
Friction will be innovated away, and the reality is, no serious institution wants a volatile gas token to trade stocks. They want USD denominated fees and stable brokerage prices. I can go on, but suffice to say I am not constructive at all on the fundamentals here (applies to all L1s outside Bitcoin btw).
As a disclaimer - I sold all my ETH when it was last north of 4200 in 2022 and put it all into BTC at the time. I do not have a horse in the race, but am interested. I asked GROK a couple of questions following on the question above, while I can not confirm the accuracy the response seems sound and plausible.
Another outstanding analysis 👏
thanks Check, I've had my plan for this bull market since early 2024. so far its been working fine, and like you say, helps me keep my emotions and emotional decisions in check. This drop around jackson hole before and after kinda made my gut worried. All your charts and science have shown me that I'm not wrong in assuming that SO FAR. and dont pull the trigger ever out of emotion.
I really needed this report for my piece of mind and to let my head take back over from my fear/greed urges.
ps. setting up my daily DCA has helped soooo much with this too.
The crazy thing is, Daily DCA is almost impossible to beat without extremely sophisticated algorithms. It is such a powerful strategy. What is much harder to manage, is the emotional journey we experience with the ups and downs. That's where I find this data really helps, to visualise and see how things evolve and change. Setup mental thresholds and decision points in advance so it is never a surprise.
The longer I spent in the Bitcoin space, the more I realised I don't mind when the price goes down. I just hate when it goes down and I wasn't expecting it, and feel my uncertainty levels shoot through the roof. So long as I am mentally prepared, it's just another day on the roller coaster.
too true. I feel so much better after I signed up with river and started my dailys. now I don't feel hardly any anxiety to the upside or downside anymore. I've learned through mistakes that I'm the type of emotional trader that will always make the wrong choice and buy at the top cause of FOMO, and sell at the bottom cause I'm just too scared. Now those bad choices are only for my "extra" money that I can gamble with.
I am so happy with the whole thing I got my friends at work (that will still listen to me blather on about bitcoin) to sign up and at least promise to start a DCA. any start is better than no start.
Hi James, is there a chart for dca? like some cost average line vs the real price. Besides, if we expect btc to hold 100k this year, is it a good time to dca now? it's already 110k and the upside this year should be bigger than downside
I've found a few amazing graphs built on twitter by stinston_with. the one you want will "predict" how much you need to DCA weekly to get to a specific amount of BTC in a specific year. stinston only posts on twitter but great info. I personally do daily buys, more reliable to get the wiggles. just divide your weekly buy by 7 and do daily buys
as far as is it a good time to DCA, I'm only spending half my daily buys right now and saving the other half for later after the price (cycle) tops and comes back down. that way I have extra dry powder for when the price becomes discounted, AND I'm still buying now. just the piece of mind of not having to time the market is worth any nickles and dimes I spend extra right now.
thanks for the callout! btw i cannot find the guy on twitter. is it stinston_with?
https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1942959025177698572 is the exact chart I was talking about but look at his feed. lots of useful stuff there
Hey James, what is your read on your choppiness index as of today? Are we in a period for a multi week, brief chopsolidation period before the next move up into a historically good October?
There is sufficient energy to trend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The risk we're trying to work through, is which direction will that trend be in.
Great piece, pure signal as usual. Thanks again for the thoughtful, emotionally mature and frequent BTC market thoughts. As a genx late to the btc party but long in markets I’ve found your commentary to be most helpful amoung all the btc voices. This last push down felt like liquidations and margin calls to me. I’m feeling really good about the momentum going into the end of the year. Let’s go!
You're my favorite influencer, James. Just tell me when to go max-short.
BTW, congrats on being the #2 bestselling newsletter in the crypto category on Substack!
Haha, thanks mate. We've been #2 for 6mths or so I think, with eyes on the top spot. Like going to the gym, just have to stay consistent and push ourselves to deliver the best.
Psychologist: “You see Bitcoin drop to $110k. What do you feel?”
• Normie: Panic. Sell. Tears.
• Trader: Short it. Leverage 25x. Liquidated.
• Bitcoiner: Inner peace. Buy more. Post memes.
Diagnosis: Patient is completely fine… as long as they can keep stacking. 😂
Absolutely outstanding analysis!!! Honestly, how do you do it, James? Just got that wick you mentioned (108 level in your video). You and your on chain analysis are like a magician’s trick - just amazing. With you front-running the moves with your info, I am better prepared - don’t need to get nervous and can also be ready to capitalize on the move when i can. THANK YOU!
Thanks Kieth. If I was to hazard a guess, it is because I have spent far too many hours nerding out over these weird and wonderful charts and datasets. More often than not, our natural Bitcoiner instincts align very closely with the data, largely because the data describes all of our holdings in aggregate. It's basically our emotions plotted out in chart form.
The secret sauce in my view, is trusting your gut. When the data lines up with it, that's a great sign. When divergences emerge, that's when things get really interesting!
Have been watching the YT pods so far, best analysis out there. Have just now subscribed to stay more up to date and a little more sane during more volatile periods. Appreciate your work man.
Legend, great to have you on the team!
Hi James, have been a subscriber on and off for a year now, love your analysis and especially the checkonchain chart suite!
remember reading about possibility for API integration on the checkonchain chart, is that still a thing and if yes, what's the best way to get in touch about that?
G'day! There are no plans to do an API, but at the bottom of this post you will find a link to our friend ResearchBitcoin who has an API for Bitcoin data which we proudly use.
On the macro side of things I can definitely see further US rate cuts into the end of the year. I am still skeptical we'll flip from bull to bear without at least some of the usual overheated signals triggering (fade out with a whimper versus a bang); right now feels like a pause / wait-and-see phase rather than the final stages of a bull.
Something wrong with the video or is it just me? I get video unavailable.
It looks ok from our end Tim, did it resolve for you?
James, you are the main reason I have completely avoided Ethereum. Mostly I have been thankful for this, especially last December when so many got wrecked. I want to believe that this time is no different, but the noise is VERY loud. I just wanted to clarify that in your honest assessment there is still no valid investment case for ETH. Tokenization still sounds a complete scam, but I have some family that are senior in corporate finance and they have certainly bought into the “utility” narrative surrounding stable coins and the bill that was just passed.
My position has not changed. The stablecoin is the utility, not the gas token. When I drive my car, I don't stockpile mountains of petrol, I just drive down the service station once every few weeks to fill up as necessary.
When people talk about tokenisation of RWAs, the value is in the RWA, not the gas token used to move it around. Besides, Ethereum is unable to scale for global commerce at the base layer, and L2s are basically just L1's which extract 95% of the value from the Ethereum L1. Base is the most successful L2 and is literally a single server in Coinbase basement extracting tens of millions of dollars in fees, whilst paying a hundred k to the L1.
Friction will be innovated away, and the reality is, no serious institution wants a volatile gas token to trade stocks. They want USD denominated fees and stable brokerage prices. I can go on, but suffice to say I am not constructive at all on the fundamentals here (applies to all L1s outside Bitcoin btw).
As a disclaimer - I sold all my ETH when it was last north of 4200 in 2022 and put it all into BTC at the time. I do not have a horse in the race, but am interested. I asked GROK a couple of questions following on the question above, while I can not confirm the accuracy the response seems sound and plausible.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/05WugGi2H2eDeprB2HzUl3lqt