How stable is the denominator, and what is a store of value? Today, I welcome Joe Carlasare on the podcast to discuss how we think about these questions, and so much more.
Joe seems like a good guy and I enjoyed the interview so my criticisms aren't personal but mainstream macro guys who are doing okay in this economy don't get it at all. My company's laid off hundreds of people this year and I know dozens of businesses who have done the same. Small business bankruptcies are at an all-time high and banks are not loaning anything out at the regional and local level to small businesses and most of businesses at that level need bridge loans to get them through slow times. Covid wiped out tons of employment and millions of people no longer are even looking for jobs. Social security disability has put millions of people on the roles over the last three or four years and those people don't show up as unemployed either but we still carry the weight in society for taking care of them.. I get the points and they're all valid if you believe the gaslighting statistics that we get out of Washington but they just don't add up if you're walking around in the real world. People are getting the s*** kicked out of them and those with fancy college educations and good laptop jobs are scratching their heads and wondering what all the fuss is about. Every recession we've ever had has been backdated a year at least 6 months from the point they said it started. Economist do one thing really well which is never predict a recession accurately and all these guys love to pivot on a dime and say they have new data so they've changed their minds. The macro stuff is very useful if you're in the market but if you're just a working stiff that's stacking SATs I think it all pretty much boils down to gaslighting, bread and circuses...
Well said. Take a walk around most of Europe and China and you’ll probably see the same. Not everyone has the luxury of the rate of US deficit spending and financialised economy to mask a recession in the real economy.
- Some countries and companies are unaffected by high rates, others completely rekt
- Some data shows chaos, other data shows resilience.
I cannot help but feel we're watching a very complex and dynamic K shaped system. The denominator has been debased, and the measuring sticks are being fudged. For analysts, it absolutely necessitates a deep and thoughtful interrogation of everything we use as an input. The headlines are unreliable, and this makes it a very challenging puzzle to solve for.
Appreciate both of your comments Frank and Murray!
Greats episode James. I do wonder if Joe compared the rate and scale of US deficit spending over the last 700 days if that might be a clue as to how the yield curve has stayed inverted that long without an apparent broad recession? And if he considers global conditions like China and Europe to be material.
Typically there’s a “gradually then suddenly” ramp in US unemployment when you look back at all previous recessions. So I’m thinking Joe’s right, we’ll see what unemployment does between now and say February (given they always revise the stats retrospectively to be worse, it might take a little longer than end of year to show).
In the podcast, you mentioned something along the lines of how there was a need for more ways to borrow against your BTC and that it would be a growth area. The availability of more than the current options would make it easier to hodl and reduce my concern about how to pay my bills during retirement. Can you say more about it? Either here or in a future newsletter....Terrific podcast.
Joe seems like a good guy and I enjoyed the interview so my criticisms aren't personal but mainstream macro guys who are doing okay in this economy don't get it at all. My company's laid off hundreds of people this year and I know dozens of businesses who have done the same. Small business bankruptcies are at an all-time high and banks are not loaning anything out at the regional and local level to small businesses and most of businesses at that level need bridge loans to get them through slow times. Covid wiped out tons of employment and millions of people no longer are even looking for jobs. Social security disability has put millions of people on the roles over the last three or four years and those people don't show up as unemployed either but we still carry the weight in society for taking care of them.. I get the points and they're all valid if you believe the gaslighting statistics that we get out of Washington but they just don't add up if you're walking around in the real world. People are getting the s*** kicked out of them and those with fancy college educations and good laptop jobs are scratching their heads and wondering what all the fuss is about. Every recession we've ever had has been backdated a year at least 6 months from the point they said it started. Economist do one thing really well which is never predict a recession accurately and all these guys love to pivot on a dime and say they have new data so they've changed their minds. The macro stuff is very useful if you're in the market but if you're just a working stiff that's stacking SATs I think it all pretty much boils down to gaslighting, bread and circuses...
Well said. Take a walk around most of Europe and China and you’ll probably see the same. Not everyone has the luxury of the rate of US deficit spending and financialised economy to mask a recession in the real economy.
It is fascinating to see the divergences:
- Some sectors are winning, others are hit hard.
- Some countries and companies are unaffected by high rates, others completely rekt
- Some data shows chaos, other data shows resilience.
I cannot help but feel we're watching a very complex and dynamic K shaped system. The denominator has been debased, and the measuring sticks are being fudged. For analysts, it absolutely necessitates a deep and thoughtful interrogation of everything we use as an input. The headlines are unreliable, and this makes it a very challenging puzzle to solve for.
Appreciate both of your comments Frank and Murray!
Greats episode James. I do wonder if Joe compared the rate and scale of US deficit spending over the last 700 days if that might be a clue as to how the yield curve has stayed inverted that long without an apparent broad recession? And if he considers global conditions like China and Europe to be material.
Typically there’s a “gradually then suddenly” ramp in US unemployment when you look back at all previous recessions. So I’m thinking Joe’s right, we’ll see what unemployment does between now and say February (given they always revise the stats retrospectively to be worse, it might take a little longer than end of year to show).
In the podcast, you mentioned something along the lines of how there was a need for more ways to borrow against your BTC and that it would be a growth area. The availability of more than the current options would make it easier to hodl and reduce my concern about how to pay my bills during retirement. Can you say more about it? Either here or in a future newsletter....Terrific podcast.