With all the turmoil in markets this week, I wanted to jump on the phone with someone who has done serious proof-of-work understanding the wider macro landscape.
Hi James, would be great to get crossbordercapital (Michael Howell) on the new podcast. He is literally one of the few people out there that called the bottom in October 2022. His book is amazing too!
Good discussion. Couldn't help but notice a more bearish BTC outlook and tone in this pod as compared with your usual articles. Served as a reminder to me anyway, that BTC is to a great extent influenced by the larger macro environment which may be underwhelming in both the medium - longer terms. Best Regards
I'm really glad you enjoyed the discussion, I did also.
When I think about things holistically, I believe BTC is still the ideal asset to protect me from the fiat circus that is coming. I suspect it happens in waves with lengthy pauses in between (like this year). I remain very optimistic in terms of the asset and its likely performance.
What I am doing is keeping myself grounded with my expectations around the path we take to get there. It may not be the kind of rip-roaring upside most folks expect, but instead a more technical, grinding process that doesn't look like cycles of the past. As an analyst, this is exciting, as it offers opportunities to really think through the mechanics day by day to unpick when the tides turn. It may also be exactly like last cycles!
Macro moves slowly, then all at once, and that may be a good framework to have on the radar for the time being.
Aug 13·edited Aug 13Liked by James Check (Checkmatey)
Great pod James! I didn't think you were bearish, but TX definitely has that bearish stance.
Lets take the assumption that this cycle will be different (i.e., no massive pumps in the next 2 years), and that BTC is not going to perform well in the next few years. What I would like to understand from TX would be: how does he expect other assets (e.g., Bonds, Real Estate, Stocks, Gold, other Commodities, etc.) to perform relative to Bitcoin during that timeframe?. Would they be expected to out perform in regards to BTC, and what would his rationale be?
Curious to get your take on that too James - although I think I know the answer. :D
Checkonchain somehow keeps getting better. Thanks Check and TX! Didn’t realize half of US mortgages were locked in below 4%. Speaks to interest rate insensitivity going forward for sure.
Excellent discussion with TXMC, Check. It's interesting that you two are maybe looking at the same thing but there are subtle differences, I sensed.
For example, at one point you emphasized on the inevitable monetization of debt while on the replies he discussed about the rates trajectory.
From my personal view, TX puts a bit too much emphasis on Fed rates. Fiscal dominance is the condition where Fed rates may not matter as much as before, and the emphasis will be more on, as the phase suggests, fiscal. Perhaps more exploration of the idea that high rates can be stimulative is needed from his part.
Still really appreciate his data driven approach and the different nuances are very nice to see. After all that's what create markets.
TX also has great charts with all those various rate-of-change metrics on the economy, so it would be cool to combine what he's seeing in those with what you are seeing onchain.
... I think I might argue that the world is not going to wait for all this to naturally work itself out. If we really are in a fourth turning the world will settle this much like a volcano settles too much internal pressure.
I would love to see you talk to Lyn Alden.
Hi James, would be great to get crossbordercapital (Michael Howell) on the new podcast. He is literally one of the few people out there that called the bottom in October 2022. His book is amazing too!
Good discussion. Couldn't help but notice a more bearish BTC outlook and tone in this pod as compared with your usual articles. Served as a reminder to me anyway, that BTC is to a great extent influenced by the larger macro environment which may be underwhelming in both the medium - longer terms. Best Regards
I'm really glad you enjoyed the discussion, I did also.
When I think about things holistically, I believe BTC is still the ideal asset to protect me from the fiat circus that is coming. I suspect it happens in waves with lengthy pauses in between (like this year). I remain very optimistic in terms of the asset and its likely performance.
What I am doing is keeping myself grounded with my expectations around the path we take to get there. It may not be the kind of rip-roaring upside most folks expect, but instead a more technical, grinding process that doesn't look like cycles of the past. As an analyst, this is exciting, as it offers opportunities to really think through the mechanics day by day to unpick when the tides turn. It may also be exactly like last cycles!
Macro moves slowly, then all at once, and that may be a good framework to have on the radar for the time being.
Great pod James! I didn't think you were bearish, but TX definitely has that bearish stance.
Lets take the assumption that this cycle will be different (i.e., no massive pumps in the next 2 years), and that BTC is not going to perform well in the next few years. What I would like to understand from TX would be: how does he expect other assets (e.g., Bonds, Real Estate, Stocks, Gold, other Commodities, etc.) to perform relative to Bitcoin during that timeframe?. Would they be expected to out perform in regards to BTC, and what would his rationale be?
Curious to get your take on that too James - although I think I know the answer. :D
Checkonchain somehow keeps getting better. Thanks Check and TX! Didn’t realize half of US mortgages were locked in below 4%. Speaks to interest rate insensitivity going forward for sure.
Excellent discussion with TXMC, Check. It's interesting that you two are maybe looking at the same thing but there are subtle differences, I sensed.
For example, at one point you emphasized on the inevitable monetization of debt while on the replies he discussed about the rates trajectory.
From my personal view, TX puts a bit too much emphasis on Fed rates. Fiscal dominance is the condition where Fed rates may not matter as much as before, and the emphasis will be more on, as the phase suggests, fiscal. Perhaps more exploration of the idea that high rates can be stimulative is needed from his part.
Still really appreciate his data driven approach and the different nuances are very nice to see. After all that's what create markets.
Great conversation! Would love to see you and TX do this monthly. Just relaxed, chopping it up, maybe bringing on guests from tim-to-time.
TX also has great charts with all those various rate-of-change metrics on the economy, so it would be cool to combine what he's seeing in those with what you are seeing onchain.
... I think I might argue that the world is not going to wait for all this to naturally work itself out. If we really are in a fourth turning the world will settle this much like a volcano settles too much internal pressure.