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If It Walks, Talks and Quacks Like a Bull...

Bitcoin has broken back above $66k, helping bolster the case that the recent consolidation was a bull flag, providing the market a much needed chance to catch its breath before heading higher.

Onchain analysis is a little bit like having partial x-ray vision at the poker table. You can’t see every card, but if you can make a handful of cards transparent, it can improve your odds..if you know what you’re looking at of course.

There are two powerful areas of onchain data which TradFi analysts can only wish they had transparency for:

  • Profit/Loss Metrics describing how in or out of the money the hands held by the other players are. This helps us read when they are likely to fold, or when they about to cash in a big winning hand.

  • Cohorts which give us a read on the character of our opponents, and we can distinguish between seasoned veterans, and players who are so new to the game they look at their clothes when someone asks ‘what suit?’.

In today’s post, we’re going to dive deep into the Long and Short-Term Holder cohorts, and specifically assess the profitability of their Bitcoin holdings. In particular, we want to understand a few elements related to the current rally:

  • Are Long-Term Holders still taking profits, creating sell-side headwinds?

  • Are Long-Term Holders net distributing, accumulating, or just HODLing?

  • Are Short-Term Holders holding a profitable hand, or still on the edge?

Ultimately, what we’re trying to ascertain is whether this Bitcoin rally back to $66k is for real, or just another fake out to temp the bulls?

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