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Finding Fair Value
How can we value Bitcoin? What price models can we use to establish an estimate of 'fair value'? Today's analysis covers a suite of valuation models…
Jan 13
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James Check (Checkmatey)
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Recent posts
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My Strategy Strategy
The wider Treasury Company complex has never convinced me of its longevity. Strategy is different however, and I've been building a position in this…
Jan 8
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James Check (Checkmatey)
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A Green Open To 2026
Bitcoin has kicked off the new year with a rally back to $93k, squeezing shorts, & supported by a move closer to a healthy spot driven market. Will it…
Jan 5
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🟠 Recording - Orange Member End Of Year Call - Dec '25
Watch the December '25 Orange Member Call now.
Dec 31, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
Setting Expectations For 2026
As we come to the close of 2025, I have spent time consolidating my thoughts and expectations for the new year, and this post looks how I see the macro…
Dec 31, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
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Masterclass
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Masterclass #21: Wen Top?
"How to spot Bitcoin cycle tops?" is by far the most popular question I receive as an analyst. Whilst we cannot predict the future, we can model where…
Aug 11, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
77
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Masterclass #19: Spotting Cycle Extremes
There are many ways we can identify overheated, or oversold Bitcoin markets, but every tool comes with a bag of nuance and jargon. Today I introduce a…
Jul 17, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
78
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How NOT to Buy Tops
Markets tend to favour those who can exercise contrarian thinking, by acting in the opposite direction of the herd. Today, we explore how I avoid buying…
May 20, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
69
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Masterclass #17: Exchanges Are Running Out of Coins!
The exchanges are always just one day away from running out of Bitcoin, and the supply squeeze that follows with be epic...right? Today we tackle this…
Apr 28, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
48
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🟠 Orange Monthly Report
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🟠 Recording - Orange Member End Of Year Call - Dec '25
Watch the December '25 Orange Member Call now.
Dec 31, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
🟠 Recording - Orange Member Call Nov '25
Watch the November '25 Orange Member Call now.
Nov 28, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
5
1
🟠 Orange Monthly: Drawdown Depth Gauge
This months Orange report analyses the Bitcoin drawdown, and works through a set of scenarios for how low the bearish trend may take us, and market…
Nov 27, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
14
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🟠 Orange Member Call Recording
Watch the October '25 Orange Member Call now.
Oct 31, 2025
•
James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
10
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Q&A
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Install Better Brakes w/ David Dredge (Rough Consensus Podcast)
Today's conversation is with David Dredge from Convex Strategies, who is an expert in understanding tail risks and the role volatility has as an asset…
Dec 3, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
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November Subscriber Q&A - Video Recording
We had a great rip this week, covering: Timing the bottom, 2026 outlook, and why the bear market consensus might be "too convenient".
Nov 27, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
39
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Q&A + What Bitcoin Did Podcast
Ask or upvote questions about the Bitcoin market, and check out James and Alec on the latest What Bitcoin Did Podcast episode!
Nov 25, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
and
Alec from Checkonchain
22
5
October Subscriber Q&A - Video Recording
In this video, we cover Bitcoin's quantum resistance, the heavy sell-side pressure we're seeing, whether the top may be in, capital rotation, the…
Oct 31, 2025
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James Check (Checkmatey)
40
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