Green Shoots

The chopsolidation tank is full of gas, and we have the first green candle in what feels like an age. The Bitcoin market is ready to move, but we do need it to stick the landing.

G’day Folks,

After what feels like an eternity, Bitcoin has decided to spring some green shoots.

At the time of writing, the price is dead on $63k, and is working its way through a critical psychological ‘resistance’ zone; bounded by Short-Term Holder cost basis ($61.8k) and the 200DMA ($64.0k).

If the market punches fully above this zone, we will have ticked all the boxes from our Playing with Fire checklist for continuation of the monthly uptrend.

With that said, we’re not out of the woods just yet, and futures leverage has increased by over $6.1B on this move higher. Having seen many of these rallies before, it can often feel ‘too easy’, leading the overconfident bulls to over-cook their leverage, resulting in a wipe-out.

In this market update, I will assess the quality of this rally from an onchain perspective, and follow up with a risk assessment of leverage in derivatives market to check for any curve-balls.