First Relief (+ MSTR Analysis)
Bitcoin is experiencing the first relief bounce since the $80k local low, and is battling to get back up to the critical $95k level. MSTR is now trading at levels which has Check the HODLer interested
G’day Folks,
Bitcoin has bounced back into the low $90ks, and is slowly working its way back towards the critical $95k level. As you have probably already experienced, it can be quite remarkable how much ‘hope’ a relatively small price move like this can bring.
I suspect this relief bounce will be one of several that we have to go through as the market tries to hammer out a low, and re-find equilibrium.
The shape of this relief bounce, and the behaviour of investors within it, will be the key determinant of how bearish our thinking needs to be. Whilst I believe we should have a bear market mindset, as we have covered in A Bear Market History Lesson, my base case is that this bear is unlikely to look like the prior ones.
What has also grabbed my attention is that the MSTR (undiluted) market cap is now trading below its BTC book value, giving a basic mNAV of 0.85.
As an ex-Strategy investor, who sold my MSTR at $300 in mid-October, this has piqued my interest once again.
Today’s post will cover Bitcoin and Strategy, and how my base case thinking is evolving during this first relief bounce of the $80k low.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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