Catching Knives: Market & Macro Update With The Bitcoin Layer
The Bitcoin price is in free fall, and has just traded back to $86k this week. With our bear market goggles now in place, it is time to review both market and macro conditions with the TBL team.
‘You can’t trade the market you want, only the one that’s in front of you’ — Doc Severson
G’day Folks,
We’re back with the latest edition of our collaborative analysis with The Bitcoin Layer, and this week we’re going to be addressing the obvious topic; ugly red price candles.
For the first time since June 2023, the year-on-year return for Bitcoin is negative, and as we’re trading at $86.5k, the price is now down -7% in 2025 YTD.
This is clearly not the market any of us want to see, but it is indeed the market that is in front of us, and one we started mentally preparing for in mid-October.
In today’s post
The Checkonchain team will provide a market update on both the onchain and derivatives front, assessing the damage, and looking for likely zones of bear market support.
The Bitcoin Layer team will provide their perspective on the liquidity conditions that are shaping the macro backdrop, including their read on bank reserves, the reverse repo facility, and the impact of bond volatility.
Let’s get stuck in, as we clearly have a lot to cover in today’s analysis.
Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!
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