What If I'm Wrong?
My working Bitcoin bear market thesis does not appear to be a consensus view, with most believing Bitcoin is headed down to the $40ks for its ultimate low. Let's analyse that scenario.
G’day Folks,
Markets are complex and dynamic systems, and understanding them requires thinking in scenarios and probabilities.
It is impossible for us to know the future, although that certainly doesn’t prevent us from making an educated and informed guess.
When I analyse the Bitcoin market, I use a variety of datasets which represent sectors of market participants. Each sector (e.g. onchain, ETFs, or derivatives) tells us a story about what people are doing, and how they are behaving.
No model is perfect, and no analyst will ever predict the future correctly every time.
Over the last few months, I have read at least half a dozen bear market reports by analysts and firms which all paint a similar picture for Bitcoin in this bear. I see the same scenario painted all over X almost every time I take a peek at what’s happening on that side of the fence (which is increasingly infrequent these days).
The consensus view for Bitcoin appears to be that the bottom is far from in, and there’s a general expectation of a final low somewhere in the mid to low $40ks.
This scenario is not my base case view, and not what my analysis of the data suggests is the most likely setup. That said, I’m certainly not naive enough to pretend that my thesis is guaranteed to be correct. The market will clear wherever it wants to clear, and I need to remain open minded for alternative scenarios.
In this piece, I’m going to lay out my prevailing bear market thesis, and then challenge it with the scenario where the price of Bitcoin falls down to $45k.
Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (33 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.