Wading Through Choppy Waters
The macro landscape is changing in a big way. In this post, I try to synthesise the impact of a stronger Yen, rate cuts, and a strong USD, on Bitcoin's performance, and how I'm responding.
G’day Folks,
On 8 May 2024, I published Expecting Chop-solidation, where I outlined my base case; where the Bitcoin price was unlikely to go very far over the coming months. The concept was that we needed multiple months of trading up, and down, but ultimately sideways, to digest the 2023-24 rally.
Two and a half months later, and the BTC price is in the exact same spot, although with plenty of bulls and bears liquidated along the road to get there.
Over the last few days, the Bitcoin market has pulled back -5% from the $68.1k local high. Incredibly, folks are already starting to grow concerned that this suggests a bear could be right around the corner.
In this piece, I want to provide my big picture read on the current macroeconomic environment. I believe this can help contextualise the chopsolidation we are experiencing, and to prepare for what may lie ahead.
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