Masterclass: Understanding Long & Short-Term Holders
The Long and Short-Term Holder cohorts are some of the most powerful tools we have in onchain analysis, and this masterclass breaks down how I think about them in my Bitcoin analysis.
G’day Folks,
With the market bumbling along and going nowhere, today feels like a great time for the next instalment of the onchain masterclass.
One of the most powerful facets of onchain analysis is our ability to segment the Bitcoin supply into cohorts which display similar behaviour over time.
By far the most popular, and arguably useful cohorts are the Long and Short-Term Holders, which provide an incredible level of insight into investor sentiment. We can use these cohorts to do the following:
Identify cyclical tops and bottoms.
Gauge investor sentiment and trend shifts.
Analyse both macro and micro market dynamics.
Assess what the smart money HODLers are doing vs the fast money speculators.
Ultimately, these two cohorts allow us to simplify complex market dynamics into two investor behaviour buckets. We can then use metrics which describe how profitable each group is to establish confidence in our read of the market.
Today is also the perfect time to run this analysis, as the 155-day threshold separating Long and Short-Term Holders is right before the break-out to new ATHs in October last year.
Short-Term Holders are the ones who bought after the break-out, and Long-Term Holders represent everyone else.
Time to study both sides of this coin.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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