Time Pain Usually Ends With A Bang
There are no shortage of headlines and catalysts to force a downwards repricing of risk assets in the weeks ahead. Today's study will be an analysis of how I see this playing out for Bitcoin.
G’day Folks,
We’re sailing through stormy seas out there, with oil prices back above $100, equities opening in the red, and Bitcoin trading below $65k as of (Aussie) Monday morning.
There isn’t much value in sugar coating it, as the world is in a very tricky spot, and the odds that conditions improve before they get worse…are not great.
Lyn does a great job summarising the current setup, and there is little in my own research to suggest she isn’t wrong.
In my view, markets are desperately clinging onto the hope that President Trump pulls a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), and Iran’s IRGC are equally interested in Mexican cuisine.
Even if we do get a double TACO, the pig of this energy shock and supply chain disruption is already well inside the python; and it will take several months of digestion before we approach anything resembling equilibrium.
In this piece, I will continue assessing how I see Bitcoin performing through this process, with a particular focus on where the likely ‘time-pain’ capitulation may find its ultimate low.
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