Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

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Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Time-In-The-Market

Time-In-The-Market

If there was ever a time for the 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle to break, this market environment is likely it. Given we're less than 30-days from the danger zone of previous cycles...we better hope so.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
Aug 07, 2025
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Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Time-In-The-Market
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G’day Folks,

Is this time different?

Is this cycle the one that breaks the reliable 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle?

If we take a look at how the cycle has performed since the halving…it would suggest we’re less than a month away from hitting the danger zone.

The Danger Zone starts around 500-days after the halving, and sees the market explode higher into THE top…before precipitating the next bear market.

I think we can all agree, that we really do want the halving cycle to break…like right now.

Live Chart

Inspired by a conversation we had with a Checkonchain Orange member this week, today’s post is going to look at several measures of cycle time, and how close or far away we are from a classic cycle top based on duration.

I will also discuss several areas where this cycle is measurably different to prior ones, and discuss how incredibly coiled up the Bitcoin spring is as we wait for the next major move.


Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!

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