The Convergence
The last chapter of a Bitcoin bear market is a very unique event from an onchain analysis perspective, as it forces us to flip the script, and think about many metrics in an upside-down way.
G’day Folks,
What is onchain analysis at the most fundamental level?
The technical description, is that it’s the analysis of how the database of the Bitcoin supply and transactions evolves over time. We analyse coins, holding times, and the profit and loss investors lock in over time.
At a more philosophical level, it is the study of people acting in markets, and a study of the decisions we collectively make that pertain to Bitcoin.
No matter who you are, every decision to buy, sell, hold, or wait is influenced by your desire to achieve some goal in your life. It could be to save money, to swing trade, to transfer value, or to hedge the failure risk of fiat currency itself.
Bitcoin is an immutable database of those decisions, and more deeply, a record of the emotional and mental logic that went into making those decisions.
At this stage in the 2026 Bitcoin bear market, half of the supply is underwater, 80% of the capital was invested at higher prices, and the world around us is in a state of disarray, conflict and major uncertainty.
By the time we get into the later stages of a Bitcoin bear, the tourists are nowhere to be found, and the only investors who remain, are the ones who know what they own, and why they own it.
Today’s piece is going to be an analysis of late stage Bitcoin bear markets, and a reflection on how our current conditions are tracking relative to 2018 and 2022.
I will also explore why late stage bear markets are very unique from an onchain perspective, and how we must think about several metrics in the opposite way to how many of us are conditioned.
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