The Biggest, Baddest Bear Market
There are loud creaks coming from the foundation of the fiat system this week, as bond yields push to multi-decade highs, and oil prices start climbing once again.
G’day Folks,
The 2020’s decade often feels like a rolling series of crisis headlines, many of which produce counter-intuitive impacts on markets.
Few could have anticipated gold to sell-off, equities to moon, and oil to still be lower than the 2022 peak given the magnitude of the prevailing energy crisis and conflict.
In particular, the 2022 rate hiking cycle, and the subsequent bear market was a major inflection point for both the geopolitical landscape, and financial markets.
Coming off the back of unprecedented and egregious levels of stimulus and fiscal spending in 2020-21, headline inflation exploded higher, unleashing a genie that had been more or less contained for the preceding decade. Almost every asset took a nasty hit lower in 2022, and many sectors of the real economy have struggled to recover ever since.
The more I reflect on that 2022 period, and what has transpired since, the clearer it becomes that it was a historic inflection point across the biggest, baddest, and most important market sectors out there.
It has been a long while since I have compiled a piece focused on the macro landscape, and today I try to weave a bunch of ideas together.
I discuss gold, energy, commodities, bonds, and how Bitcoin ties into it all. My goal is to try and setup a more cohesive framework for what looks to be a very volatile period ahead.
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