System Stress
The overall Bitcoin market is currently experiencing the highest degree of stress in the cycle so far. Investors are holding losses, hashrate is declining, and price is struggling to gain a foothold.
G’day Folks,
From my perspective, the Bitcoin market is broadly under a significant amount of stress. Investors are sitting on around $100B in unrealised losses, miners are pulling back hashrate, and most treasury company stocks are trading significantly below their BTC book value.
Add to this that Bitcoin is trading in what appears to be a bear flag, located right above the True Market Mean, and the ETF inflow cost basis.
No matter which way we slice it, these conditions are the most negative we have seen since the 2022 bear market.
In today’s piece, I will analyse the stress that is within the system, and focus on:
My base case expectations for price action in the weeks ahead.
An update on key price models where I think a floor will ultimately form.
Assessment of ETF investor behaviour given 60% of inflows are underwater.
My view on the stress within the treasury company, and mining sectors.
Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary & video update below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!