Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Subscriber Q&A - September 2025

The Bitcoin market's momentum has slowed, and water is slowly creeping higher atop The HODLers Wall. This months Q&A gave us an opportunity to assess conditions at this critical decision point.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
Alec from Checkonchain's avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
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Alec from Checkonchain
Sep 26, 2025
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G’day Folks,

Big thanks to everyone who asked and up-voted questions for our September Q&A. We had a fantastic session (50 minutes runtime) covering a wide range of topics.

Topics Covered:

  • Macro & Risks

    • Top three risks to Bitcoin price in coming weeks/months

    • Evidence for a derivatives/paper top vs demand/liquidity-driven top

    • Why BTC fell despite $1.7B in ETF/Metaplanet/Saylor buys

    • On-chain “must hold” levels

  • Pricing Levels

    • Upper and lower price range speculation for Bitcoin by end of 2025

    • Which price levels BTC will likely never revisit again

    • “Air pockets” in bull runs - are they always back-filled?

  • Investment Strategy

    • Daily vs weekly vs monthly DCA

  • Liquidity & Market Structure

    • Next source of liquidity for another leg higher

    • Bitcoin’s mispriced volatility: implied vol, Bollinger bands

    • Options market dynamics (skew, gamma exposure, funding rates) as exhaustion signals

  • Practical Finance & Safety

    • Using gold vs money market for 3–12 month “lifestyle chips”

    • Safest way to store large BTC amounts (cold wallet, exchange, ETF, multisig)

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