Subscriber Q&A - September 2025
The Bitcoin market's momentum has slowed, and water is slowly creeping higher atop The HODLers Wall. This months Q&A gave us an opportunity to assess conditions at this critical decision point.
Disclaimer: This video is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions.
G’day Folks,
Big thanks to everyone who asked and up-voted questions for our September Q&A. We had a fantastic session (50 minutes runtime) covering a wide range of topics.
Topics Covered:
Macro & Risks
Top three risks to Bitcoin price in coming weeks/months
Evidence for a derivatives/paper top vs demand/liquidity-driven top
Why BTC fell despite $1.7B in ETF/Metaplanet/Saylor buys
On-chain “must hold” levels
Pricing Levels
Upper and lower price range speculation for Bitcoin by end of 2025
Which price levels BTC will likely never revisit again
“Air pockets” in bull runs - are they always back-filled?
Investment Strategy
Daily vs weekly vs monthly DCA
Liquidity & Market Structure
Next source of liquidity for another leg higher
Bitcoin’s mispriced volatility: implied vol, Bollinger bands
Options market dynamics (skew, gamma exposure, funding rates) as exhaustion signals
Practical Finance & Safety
Using gold vs money market for 3–12 month “lifestyle chips”
Safest way to store large BTC amounts (cold wallet, exchange, ETF, multisig)
New Report: The Bitcoin Checkpoint
As mentioned on the call, we’re excited to share with you The Bitcoin Checkpoint, our freshly published report with Unchained Capital. This 62-page report explores how the 2023–2025 bull cycle has permanently reshaped Bitcoin’s market structure - and why this time is measurably different.
Cheers,
James & Alec
Amazing insights once again 👏
Thanks James! You have a notably more neutral tone on this call than Hodlers Wall and Water at the Top of the Wall. Not bearish, but Checkthebull seems more tame today. I'm still quite bullish on Q4 due to the analysis you provide as well as classical TA.
I was reviewing the LTH Supply chart and noticed that the 2017 and 2022 tops were marked by steep drops in LTH supply, around a 25% drop in LTH during the Q4 top in 2017 and a 15% or so drop in Q1/Q2 2022 'true' cycle top.
However, the two local tops this cycle are much shallower. The ETF inspired local top in Jan 2024 had a 10% drop in LTH and the Trump election win to tariff tantrum drop in April had 8% drop in LTH supply. This recent chopsolidation to mild ATH in August is a meager 3.1% drop in LTH. MVRV Z-score also in a very narrow range, super mild compared to previous cycles. As you've said, numerous metrics are coiling up and ready for volatility, and with such muted onchain metrics, the probability favors the bull's IMO. LTH aren't really selling yet. Or am I misreading the charts?