Steady As: A Bitcoin Market Update

In today's post, I provide a back to basics market update, covering all the essential metrics, as well as my current thinking around MicroStrategy.

G’day Folks,

The last few newsletters have been deeper, and more in the weeds, exploring many of the nuanced dynamics around Long-Term Holder selling.

Despite this sell-side pressure, I remain very impressed by how well the Bitcoin market is holding up, and it is an example of the demand profile being no joke. The BTC price continues to chop around $100k, working off the November rally, and is arguably setting us up for a pretty exciting 2025.

In today’s post, I want to get back to the basics, and walk you through my current, unfiltered thinking around:

• Current supply and demand balance.

• Where we appear to be in the cycle (heated, overheated etc).

• Key price levels where we may find heavy resistance on the next leg up.

• Where MVRV and SOPR are trading (across all cohorts).

• Leverage and directional bias in futures markets.

• My current thoughts on MicroStrategy, which I continue studying in the background.

This session is a very typical example of the bread and butter metrics that I check most days to get a broad view on the market.

Let’s dig into some charts!

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