Stair-Stepping Towards Supply Discovery
The Bitcoin price is stair-stepping its way towards supply discovery, a phase of the market where just about every investor is back in profit, meaning it is time to look up at the next price target.
G’day Folks,
Stair-stepping price action is exactly what we want to see.
Almost 1-year ago to the day, I published Quiet & Trending, where I laid out a framework I use for thinking about price action and volatility. The most stable bull markets are the ones where price stair-steps higher on relatively low volatility, and every rally is followed by a ‘high and tight’ consolidation range.
On the monthly, weekly, and daily time-frames, I would classify Bitcoin’s price action as a series of Quiet and Trending cycles, and this has been going on since the start of 2023.
Bullish impulses higher, followed by a period of chopsolidation to consolidate the gains, and prove to the market that Bitcoin is ready to move to the next altitude.
Before we hit price discovery, we often hit a phase I call ‘Supply Discovery’, where almost the entire supply returns to a state of profit.
This naturally provides a constructive backdrop for the bulls, where sentiment will be high, and recent buy-the-dip behaviour has been rewarded. Few investors are nursing meaningful losses, and HODLers often pull back on their selling, giving the market the breathing room it needs to punch through to the next price range.
Today, I want to explore this Supply Discovery concept, and follow up with my assessment of the price levels where I expect the next major market peak to be found.
We’re allowing ourselves to be bullish today, because moments like this only come around every so often.
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