Same Same...But Different
Today is a deep dive into the last three Bitcoin cycles, to demonstrate just how similar they all are...and yet simultaneously showing how wildly different our current cycle is.
G’day Folks,
The four most dangerous words in finance; This time is different…
And yet, without a doubt, this Bitcoin cycle has been very different.
The drawdowns are shallower at -25% to -30%, but they take multiple months to consolidate and resolve back to the upside.
Volatility for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and a third of the peak hit in 2017, yet the price just keeps grinding ever higher.
Bitcoin is trading almost +60% above the prior cycle ATH, and yet there isn’t a single sign that ‘altseason’ is around the corner.
When we compare the last two Bitcoin cycles since either the low, or high, it appears to be right on track…and yet everyone is bored out of their minds.
This cycle is measurably different, even though many things are very much the same.
One of my long-standing views for this cycle, is that I expect it to be very confusing for analysts and HODLers who rely on past signals, and don’t adapt their thinking.
Metrics which people expect to work, may not hit the same threshold levels, making it hard to get a read on where we are.
At the same time, many will preemptively write off other metrics as useless and defunct, only to miss the very warning signal they wanted to catch the cyclical top.
In today’s article, I want to explore a suite of metrics which help us visualise how this cycle is changing, and where it is different to prior ones.
This builds on some of the ideas I shared at my Industry-day talks for the Bitcoin Seoul conference, and hopefully works towards grounding our thinking for what may change, and what dynamics are likely to remain the same.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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