Rates, Gold & Liquidity Update with The Bitcoin Layer
The macro and geopolitical world changed forever in 2022, not only due to higher interest rates, but because everyone realised that US Bonds were no longer fit for purpose as a global reserve asset.
G’day Folks,
We’re delighted to return with another collaborative edition with our friends over at The Bitcoin Layer, to help explore how Bitcoin fits into the wide macro landscape.
As I read through the TBL team’s piece, their reference to the recent strong performance of gold immediately hit me as the topic I wanted to cover.
Readers will know from my post in April titled Gold’s Tremendous Rally, that Gold holds an important 10% weighting in my portfolio. I am very confident that if Bitcoin didn’t exist, I would have ended up a goldbug, because the problems I see in the fiat system would no doubt be just as acute as they are today.
The reason I hold 10% of my savings in gold, is not because I think it will outperform Bitcoin over the long term (I don’t think it will), but because it provides me with assurances and stability that I need for shorter term savings with a 1-2yr time horizon.
Gold is the ultimate monetary Schelling point. I don’t have to explain anything fancy for my parents to understand gold’s investment thesis. Gold is the prevailing ‘meter’ of value, and it is one of the tools which has helped me think about the finance world in a relative sense.
I also believe gold is the oldest functioning fire alarm for liquidity, and it tends to move in a way that precedes moves in Bitcoin. It is uncommon for gold to care much about intra-day noise, but it really gets moving in instances when the liquidity fire-hose is about to go through a major regime shift.
Today’s post is jam packed with macro insights from both the Checkonchain, and The Bitcoin Layer teams, where we collectively cover:
Expectations for interest rates and the odds of a Fed cutting cycle.
Insights gleaned from the US jobs market about US economic strength.
Signals from the TBL liquidity index, and what it means for Bitcoin.
How I think about assets using Gold as the meter of value.
Patterns of gold accumulation by nations and ETFs.
Comparisons we can draw between the Gold and Bitcoin ETFs.
How Bitcoin is at an important decision point vs its yellow metal cousin.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!
 | A guest post by
|
 | A guest post by
|