In this video, we cover Bitcoin's quantum resistance, the heavy sell-side pressure we're seeing, whether the top may be in, capital rotation, the outlook for Treasury Cos, and more!
Another great session. Possibly the best so far? In particular I enjoyed the contributions from Alec. Super helpful to contrast with on- chain analysis. Keep up the good work guys! + 1 on the telecaster 👍
When a substantial sell pressure is coming from 6-12m old coins, can we see how many coins of these cohort are left? At one point, the amount of 6-12m old coins must diminish and sell pressure of this cohort (momentum/swing traders) has to slow down, no?
It's a difficult question to answer, because we've been up in this sideways range for 12-months, and if you imagine we go sideways for another 6-months...there would be an entirely new crop of people who bought recently entering that bored 6-12 momentum trader bucket. There is a constant flow of people and coins moving in and out of each age band, so it is impossible to know when they will exhaust themselves.
Instead, what we can look at is things like Realised Profit and Loss. Rather than trying to time when they run out of coins, instead we look at when their sentiment shifts from positive to negative or vice versa. Signals of capitulation, or a softening of profit taking all tell us about a shift in the trend direction of sentiment.
Hi James, long-term subscriber (LTS) here, still learning from every episode you publish. I was trying to find the chart "Volume breakdown by USD size" that you discuss around 25:45 in the Q&A video in the charting suite but couldn't find it. Am I overlooking it or is this chart perhaps not yet included in the charting suite?
Another great session. Possibly the best so far? In particular I enjoyed the contributions from Alec. Super helpful to contrast with on- chain analysis. Keep up the good work guys! + 1 on the telecaster 👍
thanks for the kind words mate!
Wanted to make sure you saw this. Would love your perspective in an upcoming video!
https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/bitcoins-silent-ipo-why-this-consolidation
I did indeed, will be the muse for the first piece next week.
When a substantial sell pressure is coming from 6-12m old coins, can we see how many coins of these cohort are left? At one point, the amount of 6-12m old coins must diminish and sell pressure of this cohort (momentum/swing traders) has to slow down, no?
It's a difficult question to answer, because we've been up in this sideways range for 12-months, and if you imagine we go sideways for another 6-months...there would be an entirely new crop of people who bought recently entering that bored 6-12 momentum trader bucket. There is a constant flow of people and coins moving in and out of each age band, so it is impossible to know when they will exhaust themselves.
Instead, what we can look at is things like Realised Profit and Loss. Rather than trying to time when they run out of coins, instead we look at when their sentiment shifts from positive to negative or vice versa. Signals of capitulation, or a softening of profit taking all tell us about a shift in the trend direction of sentiment.
Of course. The unanswerable question is, when? It would be great to see supply by cohort…
Awesome AMA, see you in Bedford 🙌
Awesome Telecaster Alec!
cheers Kev :D
Ballpark estimate of how many coins that were previously considered lost were sold last 2 years?
Hi James, long-term subscriber (LTS) here, still learning from every episode you publish. I was trying to find the chart "Volume breakdown by USD size" that you discuss around 25:45 in the Q&A video in the charting suite but couldn't find it. Am I overlooking it or is this chart perhaps not yet included in the charting suite?