🟠 Orange Monthly: Up-Tober? Or It's All Over?
The Bitcoin market is at a serious decision point, with bullish momentum clearly fading in 2025, yet enough evidence the the bull hasn't rolled over just yet. We explore the bull & bear cases.
Note: The monthly report below is available for Checkonchain Orange members.
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Orange is for investors seeking the ultimate edge in the Bitcoin market, delivering you distilled, institutional-grade insights, and offering more direct and personal access to James’ thinking, analysis, and strategies as the market evolves.
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Dear Orange Members,
Gold and equities are punching new all-time-highs, the US Dollar is having a shocking year, and Bitcoin is just muddling along, going absolutely nowhere in 2025.
Over recent weeks, I have spent a considerable amount of compute cycles thinking through what it might look like if the Bitcoin bull rolled over with a whimper, and not a bang. What if our past cycle patterns are no longer relevant given the maturity of the asset class? Do we risk writing some ideas off too soon, and hanging onto others too long?
When we are starting to question our compass, it makes sense to take a step back, and take a look at the cold hard facts on the ground, and re-formulate a thesis with this exercise as groundwork. From this, I build up the evidence for a bull and a bear case, and what the key price level thresholds are where I flip my bias between either one.
For September, our report is titled Up-Tober? Or It’s All Over?, and covers the following topics:
A snapshot of where the 4yr cycle suggests we currently are.
A review of Gold, US Dollar and Bitcoin performance.
Analysis of the waning bullish momentum across several key metrics.
Deep dive into key price levels for the bulls and the bears.
Assessing the probabilities priced into IBIT’s exploding options market.
Analysis of the bear case facts on the ground.
A counter bull case of the signals of underlying strength.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.