🟠Orange Monthly: The Time-Pain Capitulation
Bitcoin feels boring, sentiment is in the gutter, and nobody seems to care anymore. These are the conditions where we tend to see the time-pain capitulation, and the point of maximum opportunity.
Dear Orange Members,
Bitcoin bear markets tend to end on apathy, often with a painful last flush-out that I call the ‘time-pain capitulation’.
Whilst downside momentum tends to crescendo with the price-pain capitulation event, many more are shaken out by the endless barrage of bad headlines, and endlessly leaky prices. The frustration, boredom, and unwind of all remaining long-bias takes it’s toll…and it takes time to do so.
This month’s Orange report is titled The Time-Pain Capitulation, and is an exploration of the market setup through this period, and some of the key drivers (and perhaps future headlines) that may motivate it.
This report covers four main topics:
My assessment of the market setup related to the time-pain chapter.
Onchain, volume and sentiment analysis describing investor apathy.
A deep dive into ETF outflows and their relation to derivatives markets.
Risk vectors pertaining to Strategy, MSTR, preferred stocks, and debt.
Orange Members will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.
Note: This monthly report & upcoming conference call is exclusive to Checkonchain Orange subscribers - which is our upper-tier plan within Substack.
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