🟠Orange Monthly: The Anatomy Of A Bear
This month's Orange report explores the incentives and actions we see play out among investors during late-stage bear markets. We're modelling how likely this trade range is a bear floor candidate.
Important Note: The monthly report below is available for Checkonchain Orange members.
🟠Orange is our highest plan tier, which sits above the Paid plan on Substack. It includes:
Institutional-Grade Monthly Report PDF
Monthly Conference Call (Report Deep Dive + Q&A)
Private Telegram Group
1:1 Annual check-in call with James & Alec
Priority Access for Questions & Support
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Dear Orange Members,
This month’s Checkonchain Orange report is titled The Anatomy of a Bear.
The topic of this month’s Orange report was an obvious choice, being a study of the prevailing bear market, and how the $60k to $70k price range compares to previous bear market floors.
Onchain data gives us a unique lens into the incentives of investors, driven by both the collapse of paper profits, and the increase in unrealised losses. As the financial damage increases, we start seeing capitulation pressures take hold, and the smart money are looking for the point of absolute seller exhaustion.
In this month’s report, we model the price levels where the market will hit an equivalent degree of financial pain to the 2018 and 2022 bear market, as a tool to help bound the bear market probabilities on the downside.
I then close with a comparative study of the supply structure at each prior bear market floor, so we can assess how credible the $60k to $70k range is as a candidate for this one.
Orange Members will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.
