🟠 Orange Monthly Report: The Return Of Leverage
The underlying structure of the Bitcoin market is changing. Spot bids are now dominated by passive ETF flows and Treasury Companies, whilst leverage is increasingly driving near-term moves.
Note: The monthly report below is available for Checkonchain Orange members.
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Dear Orange Members,
Several of my analysis pieces over recent weeks have explored the similarities, and the differences between this cycle and prior ones. Bitcoin has certainly entered a more mature, lower volatility regime, defined by institutional interest, and the passive accumulation bid from ETFs.
The underlying structure of the Bitcoin market is currently changing.
Until very recently, this Bitcoin cycle was spot dominant, and driven by a combination of ETF flows, HODLer bids, and early institutions taking a position. Since April however, these dynamics have changed markedly, transitioning into a more speculative and leverage driven market.
Aggressive accumulation by Treasury Companies is a new feature, and derivatives open interest is now firmly at all-time-highs, both on a nominal, and a relative basis. We have not yet seen the explosion in volatility, however I suspect this is being written into our future.
For June, our report is titled The Return of Leverage, and covers the following topics:
Analysis of the passive ETF flows compared to that of Treasury Companies.
Assessment of the sustainability of Treasury Companies, and risks down the road.
The impact of ETF and Treasury Company bids on the Bitcoin price.
Where the pools of ‘at-risk’ coins are which may come back to market in the bear.
The explosive up-tick in derivatives leverage and speculation.
Diagnosis of the reasons why funding rate yields are so low.
Analysis of the options market and how it is pricing the rest of 2025.
My current price topping levels, and a comparison with options data.
Key drivers for price action to the upside and downside in the near term.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.