Orange Monthly Report: Serious Capital & Serious Size

The Bitcoin market has entered the next wave of momentum, with a swing down to $86k, despite significant evidence that very serious capital has allocated in very serious size.

Note: The monthly report below is available to Checkonchain Orange members.

Orange is our highest plan tier, which sits above the Paid plan on Substack.

Orange is for investors seeking the ultimate edge in the Bitcoin market, delivering you distilled, institutional-grade insights, and offering more direct and personal access to James’ thinking, analysis, and strategies as the market evolves.

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Dear Orange Members,

The latest sell-off from $91k to $86k has kicked off the next wave of momentum, and there is no doubt it has a lot of investors quite on edge. Many are concerned that this is the start of a more protracted bear market, and the wider crypto landscape has revalued significantly lower.

With over 52% of the USD capital invested in Bitcoin occurring at a cost basis above $90k, this move rightfully deserves our attention, and a base position of caution.

However, there is also a very important story to be told via the supply/demand balance, and market conditions leading into this sell-off.

I believe getting a sound read on these dynamics will provide baseline for setting our near-term market expectations.

For February, our report is titled Serious Capital & Serious Size, and covers the following topics:

• A read on the conditions leading into the sell-off, and what that tells us about market structure moving forwards.

• Sizing up the current sell-off, including key levels, thresholds, and probabilities I assign to it.

• How deep I expect the correction could go, and the areas where I expect the bulls to mount the most formidable defense.

• How the volatility profile, and several mean reversion models have evolved over the years, pointing to a noteworthy shift in character this cycle.

• Analysis of the size and scale of both sell-side supply, and the demand which has absorbed it.

You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.